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The frequency and magnitude of weather extreme events have increased significantly during the past few years in response to anthropogenic climate change. However, global statistical characteristics and underlying physical mechanisms are…

We propose a simple theory for the ``universal'' scaling law previously reported for the distributions of waiting times between earthquakes. It is based on a largely used benchmark model of seismicity, which just assumes no difference in…

We investigate the predictability of extreme events in time series. The focus of this work is to understand under which circumstances large events are better predictable than smaller events. Therefore we use a simple prediction algorithm…

We investigate the relevance of {\sl self-organized criticality (SOC)} models in previously published empirical datasets, which includes statistical observations in astrophysics, geophysics, biophysics, sociophysics, and informatics. We…

In this paper we study a simple model of a purely excitatory neural network that, by construction, operates at a critical point. This model allows us to consider various markers of criticality and illustrate how they should perform in a…

We study the earthquake model by Olami, Feder and Christensen in one dimension. While the size distribution of earthquakes resembles a power law for small system sizes, it splits for larger system sizes into two parts, one comprising small…

Extreme events have an important role which is sometime catastrophic in a variety of natural phenomena including climate, earthquakes and turbulence, as well as in man-made environments like financial markets. Statistical analysis and…

The district of southern California and Japan are divided into small cubic cells, each of which is regarded as a vertex of a graph if earthquakes occur therein. Two successive earthquakes define an edge and a loop, which replace the complex…

A systematic quantitative investigation into whether the mechanisms of large earthquakes are unique could significantly deepen our understanding of fault rupture and seismicity patterns. This research holds the potential to advance our…

The size or energy of diverse structures or phenomena in geoscience appears to follow power-law distributions. A rigorous statistical analysis of such observations is tricky, though. Observables can span several orders of magnitude, but the…

Natural earthquake fault systems are highly non-homogeneous. The inhomogeneities occur be- cause the earth is made of a variety of materials which hold and dissipate stress differently. In this work, we study scaling in earthquake fault…

We have written a new equation to study the statistics of earthquake distributions. We call this equation "the generalized logistic equation". The Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude formula was derived from the solution of the…

We study the dynamics of the Olami-Feder-Christensen (OFC) model of earthquakes, focusing on the behavior of sequences of epicenters regarded as a growing complex network. Besides making a detailed and quantitative study of the effects of…

Speech is a distinctive complex feature of human capabilities. In order to understand the physics underlying speech production, in this work we empirically analyse the statistics of large human speech datasets ranging several languages. We…

The field of study of complex systems considers that the dynamics of complex systems are founded on universal principles that may be used to describe a great variety of scientific and technological approaches of different types of natural,…

A theoretical analysis of the earthquake prediction problem in space-time is presented. We find an explicit structure of the optimal strategy and its relation to the generalized error diagram. This study is a generalization of the…

We develop and implement a new type of global earthquake forecast. Our forecast is a perturbation on a smoothed seismicity (Relative Intensity) spatial forecast combined with a temporal time-averaged (Poisson) forecast. A variety of…

The relation between seismic moment and fractured area is crucial to earthquake hazard analysis. Experimental catalogs show multiple scaling behaviors, with some controversy concerning the exponent value in the large earthquake regime.…

In this paper, we consider an importance sampling problem for a certain rare-event simulations involving the behavior of a diffusion process pertaining to a chain of distributed systems with random perturbations. We also assume that the…

We monitor the stick-slip displacements of a very slowly driven moveable perforated top plate which interacts via shearing with a packing of identical glass beads confined in a tray. When driven at a constant stress rate, the distributions…