相关论文: Prediction in a driven-dissipative system displayi…

Out of equilibrium quantum systems, on top of quantum fluctuations, display complex temporal patterns. Such time fluctuations are generically exponentially small in the system volume and can be therefore safely ignored in most of the cases.…

Simple models of earthquake faults are important for understanding the mechanisms for their observed behavior, such as Gutenberg-Richter scaling and the relation between large and small events, which is the basis for various forecasting…

A method that exactly knows the earthquakes beforehand and can generalize them cannot still been developed. However, earthquakes are tried to be predicted through numerous methods. One of these methods, artificial neural networks give…

We propose and study a modified version of the Olami-Feder-Christiensen model of seismicity, that includes a mechanism of structural relaxation. We obtain realistic features of seismicity that are not obtained with the original version,…

This paper focuses on the problem of anticipating the local occurrence of future large earthquakes. "Local" is defined as the probability of a large earthquake occurring with a defined circle of arbitrary radius surrounding a point of…

We present a simple model of a dynamical system driven by externally-imposed coherent noise. Although the system never becomes critical in the sense of possessing spatial correlations of arbitrarily long range, it does organize into a…

We review briefly the concepts underlying complex systems and probability distributions. The later are often taken as the first quantitative characteristics of complex systems, allowing one to detect the possible occurrence of regularities…

As part of an effort to develop a systematic methodology for earthquake forecasting, we use a simple model of seismicity based on interacting events which may trigger a cascade of earthquakes, known as the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence…

Prediction of power outages caused by convective storms which are highly localised in space and time is of crucial importance to power grid operators. We propose a new machine learning approach to predict the damage caused by storms. This…

Avalanche statistics of various threshold activated dynamical systems are known to depend on the magnitude of the drive, or stress, on the system. Such dependencies exist for earthquake size distributions, in sheared granular avalanches,…

We develop an analytic framework to understand fragmentation in turbulent, self-gravitating media. Previously, we showed some properties of turbulence can be predicted with the excursion-set formalism. Here, we generalize to fully…

Statistical tests of earthquake predictions require a null hypothesis to model occasional chance successes. To define and quantify `chance success' is knotty. Some null hypotheses ascribe chance to the Earth: Seismicity is modeled as…

Current techniques for predicting climate change are mainly based on "massive" deterministic numerical modeling. However, the ocean-atmosphere system is a so-called "complex system", made up of a large number of interacting elements. We…

Earthquake occurrence is notoriously difficult to predict. While some aspects of their spatiotemporal statistics can be relatively well captured by point-process models, very little is known regarding the magnitude of future events, and it…

Here we define natural chaotic systems, like the earths weather and climate system, as chaotic systems which are open to the world so have constantly changing boundary conditions, and measurements of their states are subject to errors. In…

We show that the distribution of waiting times between earthquakes occurring in California obeys a simple unified scaling law valid from tens of seconds to tens of years, see Eq. (1) and Fig. 4. The short time clustering, commonly referred…

The present paper describes a stochastic model of fracture, whose fragment size distribution can be calculated analytically as a power-law-like distribution. The model is basically cascade fracture, but incorporates the effect that each…

Reliable prediction of large chaotic sytems in the short to middle time range is of interest in a number of fields, including climate, ecology, seismology, and economics. In this paper, results from chaos theory, and statistical theory are…

After a large earthquake, the likelihood of successive strong aftershocks needs to be estimated. Exploiting similarities with critical phenomena, we introduce a scaling law for the decay in time following a main shock of the expected number…

Previous papers have outlined nowcasting methods to track the current state of earthquake hazard using only observed seismic catalogs. The basis for one of these methods, the "counting method", is the Gutenberg-Richter (GR)…