相关论文: The basic reproduction number, $R_0$, in structure…
Epidemic models are a valuable tool in the decision making process. Once a mathematical model for an epidemics has been established, the very next step is calculating a mathematical expression for the basic reproductive number, $R_0$, which…
In this paper we consider epidemic models of directly transmissible SIR (susceptible $\to$ infective $\to$ recovered) and SEIR (with an additional latent class) infections in fully-susceptible populations with a social structure, consisting…
The basic reproduction number ($R_0$) is an epidemiological metric that represents the average number of new infections caused by a single infectious individual in a completely susceptible population. The methodology for calculating this…
The basic reproduction number, $R_0$ is an important and widely used concept in the study of infectious diseases. We briefly review the recent trend of calculating the average of various $R_0$ estimates in systematic reviews aimed at…
An important issue in theoretical epidemiology is the epidemic threshold phenomenon, which specify the conditions for an epidemic to grow or die out. In standard (mean-field-like) compartmental models the concept of the basic reproductive…
Accurate epidemic forecasting requires models that account for the layered and heterogeneous nature of real social interactions. The basic reproduction number $\mathcal R_0$ calculated from models that assume homogeneous mixing or…
When controlling an emerging outbreak of an infectious disease it is essential to know the key epidemiological parameters, such as the basic reproduction number $R_0$ and the control effort required to prevent a large outbreak. These…
In this work, we revisit the basic reproduction rate $\mathcal{R}_{0}$ definition for analysis of epidemic-non-epidemic phases describing the dynamics of the discrete stochastic version of the epidemic $SIR$ model based on the Master…
The basic reproduction number $R_0$ is a fundamental quantity in epidemiological modeling, reflecting the typical number of secondary infections that arise from a single infected individual. While $R_0$ is widely known to scientists,…
The basic and effective reproduction numbers are widely used metrics for characterizing the dynamics of infectious disease epidemics. However, the interpretation of these numbers is based on the assumption of homogeneous mixing and may not…
We propose a novel approach to approximate the basic reproduction number $R_0$ as spectral radius of the Next-Generation Operator in time-periodic population models by characterizing the latter via evolution semigroups. Once birth/infection…
For a heterogeneous host population, the basic reproduction number of an infectious disease, $\cR_0$, is defined as the spectral radius of the next generation operator (NGO). The threshold properties of the basic reproduction number are…
In the framework of population dynamics, the basic reproduction number R_0 is, by definition, the expected number of offspring that an individual has during its lifetime. In constant and time periodic environments it is calculated as the…
The basic reproduction number R0 -- the number of individuals directly infected by an infectious person in an otherwise susceptible population -- is arguably the most widely used estimator of how severe an epidemic outbreak can be. This…
This paper presents a new view of household epidemic models, where the interaction between the households is of mean field type. We thus obtain in the limit of infinitely many households a nonlinear Markov process solution of a McKean -…
As widely known, the basic reproduction number plays a key role in weighing birth/infection and death/recovery processes in several models of population dynamics. In this general setting, its characterization as the spectral radius of next…
The basic reproductive number -- $R_0$ -- is one of the most common and most commonly misapplied numbers in public health. Although often used to compare outbreaks and forecast pandemic risk, this single number belies the complexity that…
This paper proposes a structural econometric approach to estimating the basic reproduction number ($\mathcal{R}_{0}$) of Covid-19. This approach identifies $\mathcal{R}_{0}$ in a panel regression model by filtering out the effects of…
Consider a large uniformly mixing dynamic population, which has constant birth rate and exponentially distributed lifetimes, with mean population size $n$. A Markovian SIR (susceptible $\to$ infective $\to$ recovered) infectious disease,…
When an infectious disease strikes a population, the number of newly reported cases is often the only available information that one can obtain during early stages of the outbreak. An important goal of early outbreak analysis is to obtain a…