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The distribution-free chain ladder of Mack justified the use of the chain ladder predictor and enabled Mack to derive an estimator of conditional mean squared error of prediction for the chain ladder predictor. Classical insurance loss…

风险管理 · 定量金融 2023-10-19 Nils Engler , Filip Lindskog

The asymptotic distribution of the score test of the null hypothesis that marks do not impact the intensity of a Hawkes marked self-exciting point process is shown to be chi-squared. For local asymptotic power, the distribution against…

We examine a distributional fixed-point equation related to a multi-type branching process that is key in the cluster sizes analysis of multivariate heavy-tailed Hawkes processes. Specifically, we explore the tail behavior of its solution…

概率论 · 数学 2025-04-07 Jose Blanchet , Roger J. A. Laeven , Xingyu Wang , Bert Zwart

We consider a generalized version in continuous time of the parking problem of Knuth. Files arrive following a Poisson point process and are stored on a hardware identified with the real line. We specify the distribution of the space of…

概率论 · 数学 2008-01-24 Vincent Bansaye

Clusters traverse a gas and collide with gas particles. The gas particles are adsorbed and the clusters become hosts. If the clusters are size selected, the number of guests will be Poisson distributed. We review this by showcasing four…

化学物理 · 物理学 2010-02-07 Sascha Vongehr , Shaochun Tang , Xiangkang Meng

Using the results of precise large deviation and renewal theory for widely dependent random variables, this paper obtains the asymptotic estimation of the random-time ruin probability and the uniform asymptotic estimation of finite-time…

概率论 · 数学 2025-06-24 Yang Chen , Zhaolei Cui , Yuebao Wang

A theoretical approach for characterising the influence of asymmetry of noise distribution on the escape rate of a multi-stable system is presented. This was carried out via the estimation of an action, which is defined as an exponential…

介观与纳米尺度物理 · 物理学 2014-02-26 I. A. Khovanov , N. A. Khovanova

We investigate the extremal process of four-dimensional membrane models as the size of the lattice $N$ tends to infinity. We prove the cluster-like geometry of the extreme points and the existence as well as the uniqueness of the extremal…

概率论 · 数学 2025-07-29 Hao Ge , Xinyi Li , Jiaxi Zhao

The tacnode process is a universal determinantal point process arising from non-intersecting particle systems and tiling problems. It is the aim of this work to explore the integrable structure and large gap asymptotics for the gap…

数学物理 · 物理学 2023-07-13 Luming Yao , Lun Zhang

We derive asymptotic expansions for the prices of a variety of European and barrier-style claims in a general local-stochastic volatility setting. Our method combines Taylor series expansions of the diffusion coefficients with an expansion…

数理金融 · 定量金融 2017-04-07 Weston Barger , Matthew Lorig

We establish the Strong Poisson Hypothesis for symmetric closed networks. In particular, the asymptotic independence of the nodes -- as the size of the system tends to infinity -- is proved.

概率论 · 数学 2016-10-27 Serge Pirogov , Alexander Rybko , Senya Shlosman , Alexander Vladimirov

In this paper, we study compound bi-free Poisson distributions for {\sl two-faced families of random variables}. We prove a Poisson limit theorem for compound bi-free Poisson distributions. Furthermore, a bi-free infinitely divisible…

算子代数 · 数学 2019-05-10 Mingchu Gao

Let (X_n,Y_n), n\ge 1 be bivariate random claim sizes with common distribution function F and let N(t), t \ge 0 be a stochastic process which counts the number of claims that occur in the time interval [0,t], t\ge 0. In this paper we derive…

概率论 · 数学 2007-06-13 Enkelejd Hashorva

We propose a general modeling framework for marked Poisson processes observed over time or space. The modeling approach exploits the connection of the nonhomogeneous Poisson process intensity with a density function. Nonparametric Dirichlet…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2011-11-02 Matthew A. Taddy , Athanasios Kottas

When modelling metapopulation dynamics, the influence of a single patch on the metapopulation depends on the number of individuals in the patch. Since there is usually no obvious natural upper limit on the number of individuals in a patch,…

概率论 · 数学 2012-01-27 A. D. Barbour , M. J. Luczak

We describe an approach that allows us to deduce the limiting return times distribution for arbitrary sets to be compound Poisson distributed. We establish a relation between the limiting return times distribution and the probability of the…

动力系统 · 数学 2020-08-26 N. Haydn , S. Vaienti

We consider spatially homogeneous marked point patterns in an unboundedly expanding convex sampling window. Our main objective is to identify the distribution of the typical mark by constructing an asymptotic $\chi^2$-goodness-of-fit test.…

统计理论 · 数学 2016-08-10 Lothar Heinrich , Sebastian Lück , Volker Schmidt

We present exact and asymptotic results for clusters in the one-dimensional totally asymmetric exclusion process (TASEP) with two different dynamics. The expected length of the largest cluster is shown to diverge logarithmically with…

统计力学 · 物理学 2009-11-07 O. Pulkkinen , J. Merikoski

In this paper, we employ Markov process theory to prove asymptotic results for a class of stochastic processes which arise as solutions of a stochastic evolution inclusion and are given by the representation formula \begin{align*}…

概率论 · 数学 2018-01-23 Alexander Nerlich

Special case of a Gibbsian facet process on a fixed window with a discrete orientation distribution and with increasing intensity of the underlying Poisson process is studied. All asymptotic moments for interaction U-statistics are…

概率论 · 数学 2015-10-06 Jakub Vecera