相关论文: Mapping malaria seasonality: a case study from Mad…
Traditional epidemic models consider that individual processes occur at constant rates. That is, an infected individual has a constant probability per unit time of recovering from infection after contagion. This assumption certainly fails…
Emerging marine infectious diseases pose a substantial threat to marine ecosystems and the conservation of their biodiversity. Compartmental models of epidemic transmission in marine sessile organisms, available only recently, are based on…
The "meningitis belt" is a region in sub-Saharan Africa where annual outbreaks of meningitis occur, with large epidemics observed cyclically. While we know that meningitis is heavily dependent on seasonal trends (in particular, weather),…
Wolbachia infection in Anopheles albimanus mosquitoes can render mosquitoes less capable of spreading malaria. We develop and analyze an ordinary differential equation model to evaluate the effectiveness of Wolbachia-based vector control…
Malaria remains a significant public health challenge in many regions, necessitating robust predictive models to aid in its management and prevention. This study focuses on developing and evaluating time series models for forecasting…
Prediction of the progression of an infectious disease outbreak is important for planning and coordinating a response. Differential equations are often used to model an epidemic outbreak's behaviour but are challenging to parameterise.…
Plasmodium falciparum malaria still poses one of the greatest threats to human life with over 200 million cases globally leading to half-million deaths annually. Of these, 90% of cases and of the mortality occurs in sub-Saharan Africa,…
In tropical regions, populations continue to suffer morbidity and mortality from malaria and arboviral diseases. In Kedougou (Senegal), these illnesses are all endemic due to the climate and its geographical position. The co-circulation of…
Malaria can be prevented, diagnosed, and treated; however, every year, there are more than 200 million cases and 200.000 preventable deaths. Malaria remains a pressing public health concern in low- and middle-income countries, especially in…
The annual occurrence of many infectious diseases remains a constant burden to public health systems. The seasonal patterns in respiratory disease incidence observed in temperate regions have been attributed to the impact of environmental…
Health-policy planning requires evidence on the burden that epidemics place on healthcare systems. Multiple, often dependent, datasets provide a noisy and fragmented signal from the unobserved epidemic process including transmission and…
Mosquitoes are a major vector for malaria, causing hundreds of thousands of deaths in the developing world each year. Not only is the prevention of mosquito bites of paramount importance to the reduction of malaria transmission cases, but…
Malaria is a major contributor to health burdens throughout the regions where it is endemic. Historically, it was believed that there was limited morbidity and essentially no mortality associated with Plasmodium vivax; however, evidence…
Maps have long been been used to visualise estimates of spatial variables, in particular disease burden and risk. Predictions made using a geostatistical model have uncertainty that typically varies spatially. However, this uncertainty is…
In low-resource settings, prevalence mapping relies on empirical prevalence data from a finite, often spatially sparse, set of surveys of communities within the region of interest, possibly supplemented by remotely sensed images that can…
We establish some properties of a within host mathematical model of malaria proposed by Recker et al which includes the role of the immune system during the infection. The model accounts for the antigenic variation exhibited by the malaria…
Multiple seasonal patterns play a key role in time series forecasting, especially for business time series where seasonal effects are often dramatic. Previous approaches including Fourier decomposition, exponential smoothing, and seasonal…
Dengue fever impacts populations across the tropics. Dengue is caused by a mosquito transmitted flavivirus and its burden is projected to increase under future climate and development scenarios. The transmission process of dengue virus is…
Stalagmites are an extraordinarily powerful resource for the reconstruction of climatological palaeoseasonality. Here, we provide a comprehensive review of different types of seasonality preserved by stalagmites and methods for extracting…
The study was conducted to develop an appropriate model that could predict the weekly reported Malaria incidence in the Philippines using the Box-Jenkins method.The data were retrieved from the Department of Health(DOH) website in the…