相关论文: Quantifying and predicting success in show busines…
The mature development and the extension of the industry chain make the income structure of the film industry. The income of the traditional film industry depends on the box office and also includes movie merchandising, advertisement, home…
Our aim is to design mechanisms that motivate all agents to reveal their predictions truthfully and promptly. For myopic agents, proper scoring rules induce truthfulness. However, as has been described in the literature, when agents take…
We develop an analytically tractable model featuring heterogeneous workers and firms, where labor markets clear through a one-to-many sorting mechanism. Firms determine both the number and composition of their employees, shaping (1) the…
In this research, we analyze the relationship between publishing productivity and access to highly prestigious journals, treating publishing in top journals as a stratification mechanism selecting publishing elites. We study N = 144,314…
Societal ideas and trends dictate media narratives and cinematic depictions which in turn influences people's beliefs and perceptions of the real world. Media portrayal of culture, education, government, religion, and family affect their…
Data science has the potential to improve business in a variety of verticals. While the lion's share of data science projects uses a predictive approach, to drive improvements these predictions should become decisions. However, such a…
This paper explains in layperson's terms how an agent-based model was used to investigate the widely held belief that creativity is an important component of effective leadership. Creative leadership was found to increase the mean fitness…
Zipf's power-law distribution is a generic empirical statistical regularity found in many complex systems. However, rather than universality with a single power-law exponent (equal to 1 for Zipf's law), there are many reported deviations…
Zipf's law has been found in many human-related fields, including language, where the frequency of a word is persistently found as a power law function of its frequency rank, known as Zipf's law. However, there is much dispute whether it is…
Predicting future outcomes is a prevalent application of machine learning in social impact domains. Examples range from predicting student success in education to predicting disease risk in healthcare. Practitioners recognize that the…
Skill shortages are a drain on society. They hamper economic opportunities for individuals, slow growth for firms, and impede labor productivity in aggregate. Therefore, the ability to understand and predict skill shortages in advance is…
Some social networks provide explicit mechanisms to allocate social rewards such as reputation based on user activity, while the mechanism is more opaque in other networks. Nonetheless, there are always individuals who obtain greater…
Machine intelligence, or the use of complex computational and statistical practices to make predictions and classifications based on data representations of phenomena, has been applied to domains as disparate as criminal justice, commerce,…
Recent research has found that select scientists have a disproportional share of highly cited papers. Researchers reasoned that this could not have happened if success in science was random and introduced a hidden parameter Q, or talent, to…
The recent framework of performative prediction is aimed at capturing settings where predictions influence the target/outcome they want to predict. In this paper, we introduce a natural multi-agent version of this framework, where multiple…
Many complex systems are composed of disparate, interacting types of varying sizes: Species abundances in ecosystems, firm sizes in markets, city populations in countries, word counts in language, etc. A longstanding mystery of complex…
Prediction-oriented machine learning is becoming increasingly valuable to organizations, as it may drive applications in crucial business areas. However, decision-makers from companies across various industries are still largely reluctant…
How predictable is success in complex social systems? In spite of a recent profusion of prediction studies that exploit online social and information network data, this question remains unanswered, in part because it has not been adequately…
Although creativity is encouraged in the abstract it is often discouraged in educational and workplace settings. Using an agent-based model of cultural evolution, we investigated the idea that tempering the novelty-generating effects of…
Motivated by equilibrium models of labor markets, we develop a formulation of causal strategic classification in which strategic agents can directly manipulate their outcomes. As an application, we compare employers that anticipate the…