相关论文: Quantifying and predicting success in show busines…
A common expectation is that career productivity peaks rather early and then gradually declines with seniority. But whether this holds true is still an open question. Here we investigate the productivity trajectories of almost 8,500…
When predictions support decisions they may influence the outcome they aim to predict. We call such predictions performative; the prediction influences the target. Performativity is a well-studied phenomenon in policy-making that has so far…
This paper explores various socioeconomic factors that contribute to individual financial success using machine learning algorithms and approaches. Financial success, a critical aspect of all individual's well-being, is a complex concept…
Ranking systems are widely used to simplify and interpret complex data across diverse domains, from economic indicators and sports scores to online content popularity. While previous studies including the Zipf's law have focused on the…
Sales pipeline analysis is fundamental to proactive management of an enterprize's sales pipeline and critical for business success. In particular, win propensity prediction, which involves quantitatively estimating the likelihood that…
We develop a method to estimate producers' productivity beliefs when output quantities and input prices are unobservable, and we use it to evaluate the market for science. Our model of researchers' labor supply shows how their willingness…
We examine the innovation of researchers with long-lived careers in Computer Science and Physics. Despite the epistemological differences between such disciplines, we consistently find that a researcher's most innovative publication occurs…
Thanks to the availability of large online data sets, it has become possible to quantify success in different fields of human endeavour. The study presented here contributes to this literature in evaluating the effect of social media…
Visualizing big data can provide valuable insights into social science research. In this project, we focused on visualizing the potential gender gap in the global film industry over the past 100 years. We profiled the differences both for…
Can AI agents predict whether they will succeed at a task? We study agentic uncertainty by eliciting success probability estimates before, during, and after task execution. All results exhibit agentic overconfidence: some agents that…
Hot streaks dominate the main impact of creative careers. Despite their ubiquitous nature across a wide range of creative domains, it remains unclear if there is any regularity underlying the beginning of hot streaks. Here, we develop…
Predictive models for identifying at-risk students early can help teaching staff direct resources to better support them, but there is a growing concern about the fairness of algorithmic systems in education. Predictive models may…
We review recent numerical results on the role of talent and luck in getting success by means of a schematic agent-based model. In general the role of luck is found to be very relevant in order to get success, while talent is necessary but…
Can we predict the future popularity of a song, movie or tweet? Recent work suggests that although it may be hard to predict an item's popularity when it is first introduced, peeking into its early adopters and properties of their social…
Women have always been underrepresented in movies and not until recently has the representation of women in movies improved. To investigate the improvement of female representation and its relationship with a movie's success, we propose a…
I postulate that human or other intelligent agents function or should function as follows. They store all sensory observations as they come - the data is holy. At any time, given some agent's current coding capabilities, part of the data is…
Deployed supervised machine learning models make predictions that interact with and influence the world. This phenomenon is called performative prediction by Perdomo et al. (ICML 2020). It is an ongoing challenge to understand the influence…
We examine how career concerns influence the behavior and mobility of financial advisers. Drawing on a uniquely comprehensive matched panel that combines employer-employee data with a longstanding national ranking, our study tests…
Humanity has been fascinated by the pursuit of fortune since time immemorial, and many successful outcomes benefit from strokes of luck. But success is subject to complexity, uncertainty, and change - and at times becoming increasingly…
We introduce the notion of performative power, which measures the ability of a firm operating an algorithmic system, such as a digital content recommendation platform, to cause change in a population of participants. We relate performative…