相关论文: Thought Viruses and Asset Prices
In the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model of disease spreading, the time to extinction of the epidemics happens at an intermediate value of the per-contact transmission probability. Too contagious infections burn out fast in the…
We define and study an open stochastic SIR (Susceptible -- Infected -- Removed) model on a graph in order to describe the spread of an epidemic on a cattle trade network with epidemiological and demographic dynamics occurring over the same…
We study a susceptible-vaccinated--infected--recovered (SVIR) epidemic-spreading model with diversity of infection rate of the individuals. By means of analytical arguments as well as extensive computer simulations, we demonstrate that the…
We propose a dynamical model for describing the spread of epidemics. This model is an extension of the SIQR (susceptible-infected-quarantined-recovered) and SIRP (susceptible-infected-recovered-pathogen) models used earlier to describe…
Epidemic spread on networks is one of the most studied dynamics in network science and has important implications in real epidemic scenarios. Nonetheless, the dynamics of real epidemics and how it is affected by the underline structure of…
We consider a stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model with a contact rate that fluctuates seasonally. Through the use of a nonlinear, stochastic projection, we are able to analytically determine the…
This paper introduces a microscopic approach to model epidemics, which can explicitly consider the consequences of individual's decisions on the spread of the disease. We first formulate a microscopic multi-agent epidemic model where every…
We study a generic model for self-referential behaviour in financial markets, where agents attempt to use some (possibly fictitious) causal correlations between a certain quantitative information and the price itself. This correlation is…
Mathematical models are instrumental to forecast the spread of pathogens and to evaluate the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical measures. A plethora of optimal strategies has been recently developed to minimize either the infected peak…
While a common trend in disease modeling is to develop models of increasing complexity, it was recently pointed out that outbreaks appear remarkably simple when viewed in the incidence vs. cumulative cases (ICC) plane. This article details…
We consider the control of the COVID-19 pandemic through a standard SIR compartmental model. This control is induced by the aggregation of individuals' decisions to limit their social interactions: when the epidemic is ongoing, an…
A microeconomic approach is proposed to derive the fluctuations of risky asset price, where the market participants are modeled as prospect trading agents. As asset price is generated by the temporary equilibrium between demand and supply,…
Episodes of market crashes have fascinated economists for centuries. Although many academics, practitioners and policy makers have studied questions related to collapsing asset price bubbles, there is little consensus yet about their causes…
This paper considers a stochastic SIR (susceptible$\to$infective$\to$removed) epidemic model in which individuals may make infectious contacts in two ways, both within `households' (which for ease of exposition are assumed to have equal…
Research in epidemiology often focusses on designing interventions that result in the number of infected individuals asymptotically approaching zero, without considering that this number may peak at high values during transients. Recent…
One approach to the analysis of stochastic fluctuations in market prices is to model characteristics of investor behaviour and the complex interactions between market participants, with the aim of extracting consequences in the aggregate.…
We consider the low-prevalence linearized SEIR epidemic model for a society that has resolved to keep future infections low in anticipation of a vaccine. The society can vary its amount of potentially-infection-spreading activity over time,…
Two factors that are often ignored but could play a crucial role in the progression of an infectious disease are the distributions of inherent susceptibility ($\sigma_{inh}$) and external infectivity ($\iota_{ext}$), in a given population.…
Mathematical models of epidemic dynamics offer significant insight into predicting and controlling infectious diseases. The dynamics of a disease model generally follow a susceptible, infected, and recovered (SIR) model, with some standard…
A speculative agent with Prospect Theory preference chooses the optimal time to purchase and then to sell an indivisible risky asset to maximize the expected utility of the round-trip profit net of transaction costs. The optimization…