相关论文: Morbidity, mortality and the illness-death model

In this paper it is shown that statistical mechanics in the form of thermodynamic entropy can be used as a measure of the severity of individual injuries (AIS), and that the correct way to account for multiple injuries is to sum the…

Compartmental epidemic models have been widely used for predicting the course of epidemics, from estimating the basic reproduction number to guiding intervention policies. Studies commonly acknowledge these models' assumptions but less…

In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, empirical data have revealed that large-scale health crises not only cause immediate disruptions in mortality dynamics but also have persistent effects that may last for several years. Existing…

Stroke is a significant cause of mortality and morbidity, necessitating early predictive strategies to minimize risks. Traditional methods for evaluating patients, such as Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II, IV) and…

The abrupt outbreak and transmission of biological diseases has always been a long-time concern of humankind. For long, mathematical modeling has served as a simple and yet efficient tool to investigate, predict, and control spread of…

We investigate jointly modeling Age-specific rates of various causes of death in a multinational setting. We apply Multi-Output Gaussian Processes (MOGP), a spatial machine learning method, to smooth and extrapolate multiple cause-of-death…

Mathematical models of infectious diseases, which are in principle analytically tractable, use two general approaches. The first approach, generally known as compartmental modeling, addresses the time evolution of disease propagation at the…

In many countries life expectancy gains have been substantially higher than predicted by even recent forecasts. This is primarily due to increasing rates of improvement in old-age mortality not captured by existing models. In this paper we…

Palliative medicine is an interdisciplinary specialty focusing on improving quality of life (QOL) for patients with serious illness and their families. Palliative care programs are available or under development at over 80% of large US…

In this paper we explore the life expectancy limits by based on the stochastic modeling of mortality and applying the first exit or hitting time theory of a stochastic process. The main assumption is that the health state or the "vitality",…

In this paper we develop statistical methods for causal inference in epidemics. Our focus is in estimating the effect of social mobility on deaths in the Covid-19 pandemic. We propose a marginal structural model motivated by a modified…

This paper considers the problem of forecasting mortality rates. A large number of models have already been proposed for this task, but they generally have the disadvantage of either estimating the model in a two-step process, possibly…

We study the dynamics of cause--specific mortality rates among countries by considering them as compositions of functions. We develop a novel framework for such data structure, with particular attention to functional PCA. The application of…

Automated classification methods for disease diagnosis are currently in the limelight, especially for imaging data. Classification does not fully meet a clinician's needs, however: in order to combine the results of multiple tests and…

A common goal in modeling demographic rates is to compare two or more groups. For ex- ample comparing mortality rates between men and women or between geographic regions may reveal health inequalities. A popular class of models for…

Diverse analysis approaches have been proposed to distinguish data missing due to death from nonresponse, and to summarize trajectories of longitudinal data truncated by death. We demonstrate how these analysis approaches arise from…

The use of artificial intelligence in clinical care to improve decision support systems is increasing. This is not surprising since, by its very nature, the practice of medicine consists of making decisions based on observations from…

We consider the existence and uniqueness of solutions of an initial-boundary value problem for a coupled system of PDE's arising in a model for Alzheimer's disease. Apart from reaction diffusion equations, the system contains a transport…

This paper presents a novel approach for modeling mortality rates above age 70 by proposing a mixture-based model. This model is compared to four other widely used models: the Beard, Gompertz, Makeham, and Perks models. Our model can…

We investigate the bounding problem of causal effects in experimental studies in which the outcome is truncated by death, meaning that the subject dies before the outcome can be measured. Causal effects cannot be point identified without…