相关论文: Modeling outcomes of soccer matches

Prediction and modelling of competitive sports outcomes has received much recent attention, especially from the Bayesian statistics and machine learning communities. In the real world setting of outcome prediction, the seminal \'{E}l\H{o}…

Modelling football outcomes has gained increasing attention, in large part due to the potential for making substantial profits. Despite the strong connection existing between football models and the bookmakers' betting odds, no authors have…

We present ten different strength-based statistical models that we use to model soccer match outcomes with the aim of producing a new ranking. The models are of four main types: Thurstone-Mosteller, Bradley-Terry, Independent Poisson and…

Predicting the results of soccer matches is of great interest. This is not only due to the popularity of the sport and the joy of private "betting rounds", but also due to the large sports betting market. Where previously expert knowledge…

The Bradley-Terry model has previously been used in both Bayesian and frequentist interpretations to evaluate the strengths of sports teams based on win-loss game results. It has also been extended to handle additional possible results such…

A common problem faced in statistical inference is drawing conclusions from paired comparisons, in which two objects compete and one is declared the victor. A probabilistic approach to such a problem is the Bradley-Terry model, first…

Models in which the number of goals scored by a team in a soccer match follow a Poisson distribution, or a closely related one, have been widely discussed. We here consider a soccer match as an experiment to assess which of two teams is…

The Bradley-Terry model assigns probabilities for the outcome of paired comparison experiments based on strength parameters associated with the objects being compared. We consider different proposed choices of prior parameter distributions…

In-game win probability models, which provide a sports team's likelihood of winning at each point in a game based on historical observations, are becoming increasingly popular. In baseball, basketball and American football, they have become…

This paper develops a general framework for stochastic modeling of goals and other events in football (soccer) matches. The events are modelled as Cox processes (doubly stochastic Poisson processes) where the event intensities may depend on…

We consider the task of determining the number of chances a soccer team creates, along with the composite nature of each chance-the players involved and the locations on the pitch of the assist and the chance. We propose an interpretable…

In the Bradley-Terry model for paired comparisons, and its extensions to include order effects and ties, the maximum likelihood estimates of probabilities of certain outcomes can be 0 or 1 under certain data configurations. This poses…

Machine learning has become a common approach to predicting the outcomes of soccer matches, and the body of literature in this domain has grown substantially in the past decade and a half. This chapter discusses available datasets, the…

Frequently in sporting competitions it is desirable to compare teams based on records of varying schedule strength. Methods have been developed for sports where the result outcomes are win, draw, or loss. In this paper those ideas are…

Over the last few years, there has been a growing interest in the prediction and modelling of competitive sports outcomes, with particular emphasis placed on this area by the Bayesian statistics and machine learning communities. In this…

Several methods of preference modeling, ranking, voting and multi-criteria decision making include pairwise comparisons. It is usually simpler to compare two objects at a time, furthermore, some relations (e.g., the outcome of sports…

The non-scientific event of a soccer match is analysed on a strictly scientific level. The analysis is based on the recently introduced concept of a team fitness (Eur. Phys. J. B 67, 445, 2009) and requires the use of finite-size scaling. A…

Paired comparison models, such as Bradley-Terry and Thurstone-Mosteller, are commonly used to estimate relative strengths of pairwise compared items in tournament-style data. We discuss estimation of paired comparison models with a ridge…

This paper employs a Bayesian methodology to predict the results of soccer matches in real-time. Using sequential data of various events throughout the match, we utilize a multinomial probit regression in a novel framework to estimate the…

We describe the application of the Bradley-Terry model to NCAA Division I Men's Ice Hockey. A Bayesian construction gives a joint posterior probability distribution for the log-strength parameters, given a set of game results and a choice…