相关论文: Approximation Methods for Analyzing Multiscale Sto…
Understanding dynamics of an outbreak like that of COVID-19 is important in designing effective control measures. This study aims to develop an agent based model that compares changes in infection progression by manipulating different…
Over a year after the start of the COVID-19 epidemics, we are still facing the virus and it is hard to correctly predict its future spread over weeks to come, as well as the impacts of potential political interventions. Current epidemic…
This paper is a survey paper on stochastic epidemic models. A simple stochastic epidemic model is defined and exact and asymptotic model properties (relying on a large community) are presented. The purpose of modelling is illustrated by…
Emerging infectious diseases and climate change are two of the major challenges in 21st century. Although over the past decades, highly-resolved mathematical models have contributed in understanding dynamics of infectious diseases and are…
Two stochastic models are proposed to describe the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the first model the population is partitioned into four compartments: susceptible $S$, infected $I$, removed $R$ and dead people $D$. In order to have…
Existing compartmental models in epidemiology are limited in terms of optimizing the resource allocation to control an epidemic outbreak under disease growth uncertainty. In this study, we address this core limitation by presenting a…
Seasonal variations in the incidence of infectious diseases are a well-established phenomenon, driven by factors such as climate changes, social behaviors, and ecological interactions that influence host susceptibility and transmission…
This study aims to estimate the parameters of a stochastic exposed-infected epidemiological model for the transmission dynamics of notifiable infectious diseases, based on observations related to isolated cases counts only. We use the…
Forecasting transmission of infectious diseases, especially for vector-borne diseases, poses unique challenges for researchers. Behaviors of and interactions between viruses, vectors, hosts, and the environment each play a part in…
Density dependence is important in the ecology and evolution of microbial and cancer cells. Typically, we can only measure net growth rates, but the underlying density-dependent mechanisms that give rise to the observed dynamics can…
Predicting the human burden of vector-borne diseases from limited surveillance data remains a major challenge, particularly in the presence of nonlinear transmission dynamics and delayed effects arising from vector ecology and human…
In this paper we first introduce the general stochastic epidemic model for the spread of infectious diseases. Then we give methods for inferring model parameters such as the basic reproduction number $R_0$ and vaccination coverage $v_c$…
Structured additive distributional regression models offer a versatile framework for estimating complete conditional distributions by relating all parameters of a parametric distribution to covariates. Although these models efficiently…
We study viral transmission in crowds via the short-ranged airborne pathway using a purely model-based approach. Our goal is two-pronged. Firstly, we illustrate with a concrete and pedagogical case study how to estimate the risks of new…
This review maps developments in stochastic modeling, highlighting non-standard approaches and their applications to biology and epidemiology. It brings together four strands: (1) core models for systems that evolve with randomness; (2)…
Many vector-borne disease epidemic models neglect the fact that in modern human civilization, social awareness as well as self-defence system are overwhelming against advanced propagation of the disease. News are becoming more effortlessly…
In face of climate change and increasing urbanization, the predictive mosquito-borne diseases (MBD) transmission models require constant updates. Thus, is urgent to comprehend the driving forces of this non stationary behavior, observed…
Pathogen introduction in plant communities can cause serious impact and biodiversity losses that may take long time to manage and restore. Effective control of epidemic spreading in the wild is a problem of paramount importance, because of…
This paper investigates the dynamics of infectious diseases with a non-exponentially distributed infectious period. This is achieved by considering a multi-stage infection model on networks. Using pairwise approximation with a standard…
Vector-borne epidemics are the result of the combination of different factors such as the crossed contagions between humans and vectors, their demographic distribution and human mobility among others. The current availability of information…