相关论文: Extreme Value Analysis of Solar Flare Events

Disturbances in space weather can negatively affect several fields, including aviation and aerospace, satellites, oil and gas industries, and electrical systems, leading to economic and commercial losses. Solar flares are the most…

Extreme value analysis (EVA) is a statistical method that studies the properties of extreme values of datasets, crucial for fields like engineering, meteorology, finance, insurance, and environmental science. EVA models extreme events using…

Like all natural hazards, space weather exhibits occasional extreme events over timescales of decades to centuries. Historical events provoked much interest but had little economic impact. However, the widespread adoption of advanced…

This study provides a summary of the theory which enables the analysis of extreme values, i.e., of measurements acquired from the observation of extraordinary/rare physical phenomena. The formalism is developed in a transparent way,…

We use extreme value theory to estimate the probability of successive exceedances of a threshold value of a time-series of an observable on several classes of chaotic dynamical systems. The observables have either a Fr\'echet (fat-tailed)…

We investigate the response of outer radiation belt electron fluxes to different solar wind and geomagnetic indices using an interpretable machine learning method. We reconstruct the electron flux variation during 19 enhancement and 7…

Since the launch of NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory on 2010 February 11, the Extreme ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE) has observed numerous flares. One interesting feature observed by EVE is that a subset of flares exhibit an…

Different ways to estimate future return levels for extreme rainfall are described and applied to the Iberian Peninsula (IP), based on Extreme Value Theory (EVT). This study is made for an ensemble of high quality rainfall time series…

We present an analysis of soft X-ray (SXR) and extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) observations of solar flares with an approximate C8 GOES class. Our constraint on peak GOES SXR flux allows for the investigation of correlations between various flare…

Atmospheric Extreme Events (EEs) cause severe damages to human societies and ecosystems. The frequency and intensity of EEs and other associated events are increasing in the current climate change and global warming risk. The accurate…

The prediction of extreme events in time series is a fundamental problem arising in many financial, scientific, engineering, and other applications. We begin by establishing a general Neyman-Pearson-type characterization of optimal extreme…

There is increasing evidence that global warming manifests itself in more frequent warm days and that heat waves will become more frequent. Presently, a formal definition of a heat wave is not agreed upon in the literature. To avoid this…

We present the winning strategy for the EVA2025 Data Challenge, which aimed to estimate the probability of extreme precipitation events. These events occurred at most once in the dataset making the challenge fundamentally one of…

Machine learning is nowadays the methodology of choice for flare forecasting and supervised techniques, in both their traditional and deep versions, are becoming the most frequently used ones for prediction in this area of space weather.…

We have compiled a catalog of solar flares as observed by the Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) aboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) spacecraft and the GOES spacecraft over a span from 1997 to 2010. During…

Modeling of transient events in the solar atmosphere requires the confluence of 3 critical elements: (1) model sophistication, (2) data availability, and (3) data assimilation. This white paper describes required advances that will enable…

Machine learning is vital in high-stakes domains, yet conventional validation methods rely on averaging metrics like mean squared error (MSE) or mean absolute error (MAE), which fail to quantify extreme errors. Worst-case prediction…

Observed accidents have been the main resource for road safety analysis over the past decades. Although such reliance seems quite straightforward, the rare nature of these events has made safety difficult to assess, especially for new and…

Solar flares are energetic events taking place in the Sun's atmosphere, and their effects can greatly impact the environment of the surrounding planets. In particular, eruptive flares, as opposed to confined flares, launch coronal mass…

We developed a flare prediction model using machine learning, which is optimized to predict the maximum class of flares occurring in the following 24 h. Machine learning is used to devise algorithms that can learn from and make decisions on…