相关论文: Extreme Value Analysis of Solar Flare Events

Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are among the most energetic phenomena in the solar system, often impacting space weather and terrestrial technologies. In this study, we utilize SunPy, an open-source Python library for solar…

Major solar eruptive events (SEEs), consisting of both a large flare and a near simultaneous large fast coronal mass ejection (CME), are the most powerful explosions and also the most powerful and energetic particle accelerators in the…

It is important to understand to what extent, and in what perspectives, cyber attacks can be predicted. Despite its evident importance, this problem was not investigated until very recently, when we proposed using the innovative methodology…

We use Renewal Theory for the estimation and interpretation of the flare rate from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) soft X-ray flare catalogue. It is found, that in addition to the flare rate variability with the…

We present high cadence detections of two superflares from a bright G8 star (V = 11.56) with the Next Generation Transit Survey (NGTS). We improve upon previous superflare detections by resolving the flare rise and peak, allowing us to fit…

The European energy system will undergo major transformations in the coming decades to implement mitigation measures and comply with the Paris Agreement. In particular, the share of weather-dependent wind generation will increase…

Unexpected dynamic phenomena have surprised solar system observers in the past and have led to important discoveries about solar system workings. Observations at the initial stages of these events provide crucial information on the physical…

Solar flares and the often associated solar eruptive events serve as an outstanding laboratory to study the magnetic reconnection and the associated energy release and conversion processes under plasma conditions difficult to reproduce in…

The physics of solar flares occurring on the Sun is highly complex and far from fully understood. However, observations show that solar eruptions are associated with the intense kilogauss fields of active regions, where free energies are…

Estimating the probability of rare channel conditions is a central challenge in ultra-reliable wireless communication, where random events, such as deep fades, can cause sudden variations in the channel quality. This paper proposes a…

A baroclinic model for the atmospheric jet at middle-latitudes is used as a stochastic generator of time series of the total energy of the system. Statistical inference of extreme values is applied to yearly maxima sequences of the time…

We report observations of an X class flare on 2011 September 6 by the instruments onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). The flare occurs in a complex active region with multiple polarities. The Extreme-Ultraviolet (EUV) Variability…

Forecasting Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) fluence, as integrated over an SEP event, is an important element when estimating the effect of solar eruptions on humans and technology in space. Current real-time estimates are based on SEP…

Based on simultaneous observations of solar flares in hard and soft X-rays we studied several aspects of the Neupert effect. About half of 1114 analyzed events show a timing behavior consistent with the Neupert effect. For these events, a…

Extreme events are an important theme in various areas of science because of their typically devastating effects on society and their scientific complexities. The latter is particularly true if the underlying dynamics does not lead to…

A statistical analysis of the relationship between solar energetic particles (SEPs) and properties of solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is presented. SEP events during solar cycle 23 are selected which are associated with solar…

The excess temperature of the solar corona over the photosphere poses a challenge. Multiple energetic events contribute to maintaining the corona at such high temperatures. The energy released in different events can vary across several…

We study the spectral and temporal behavior of X-ray flares from the active M-dwarf EV Lac in 200 ks of exposure with the Chandra/HETGS. We derive flare parameters by fitting an empirical function which characterizes the amplitude, shape,…

We present a new empirical model to predict solar energetic particle (SEP) event-integrated and peak intensity spectra between 10 and 130 MeV at 1 AU, based on multi-point spacecraft measurements from the Solar TErrestrial RElations…

It is widely established that extreme space weather events associated with solar flares are capable of causing widespread technological damage. We develop a simple mathematical model to assess the economic losses arising from these…