相关论文: Extreme Value Analysis of Solar Flare Events

Solar flares are among the most powerful and dynamic events in the solar system, resulting from the sudden release of magnetic energy stored in the Sun's atmosphere. These energetic bursts of electromagnetic radiation can release up to…

Accurate estimation of the frequency and magnitude of successive extreme events in energy demand is critical for strategic resource planning. Traditional approaches based on extreme value theory (EVT) are typically limited to modelling…

When extreme weather events affect large areas, their regional to sub-continental spatial scale is important for their impacts. We propose a novel machine learning (ML) framework that integrates spatial extreme-value theory to model weather…

The probability of occurrence of extreme solar particle events (SPEs) with the fluence of (>30 MeV) protons F30>10^{10} cm^{-2} is evaluated based on data of cosmogenic isotopes 14C and 10Be in terrestrial archives centennial-millennial…

Extreme ultraviolet (EUV) solar flare emissions evolve in time as the emitting plasma heats and then cools. Although accurately modeling this evolution has been historically difficult, especially for empirical relationships, it is important…

This paper introduces a method for spatial interpolation of extreme values, and in particular targets the case in which conventional data, resulting from a measurement for example, are available at only a few locations. To overcome this the…

Solar energetic particles are a result of intense solar events such as solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). These latter events all together can cause major disruptions to spacecraft that are in Earth's orbit and outside of the…

Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are one of the most crucial aspects of space weather. Their prediction depends on various factors including the source solar eruptions such as flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The Geostationary…

Aims The possible influence of solar superflares on the near-Earth space radiation environment are assessed through the investigation of scaling laws between the peak proton flux and fluence of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events with the…

Causal effect estimation seeks to determine the impact of an intervention from observational data. However, the existing causal inference literature primarily addresses treatment effects on frequently occurring events. But what if we are…

Solar energetic particles (SEPs) are an important product of solar activity. They are connected to solar active regions and flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), EUV waves, shocks, Type II and III radio emissions, and X-ray bursts. These…

Extreme value theory (EVT) is a statistical tool for analysis of extreme events. It has a strong theoretical background, however, we need to choose hyper-parameters to apply EVT. In recent studies of machine learning, techniques of choosing…

Understanding solar flares is critical for predicting space weather, as their activity shapes how the Sun influences Earth and its environment. The development of reliable forecasting methodologies of these events depends on robust flare…

Solar energetic particle (SEP) events, as one of the most prominent manifestations of solar activity, can generate severe hazardous radiation when accelerated by solar flares or shock waves formed aside from coronal mass ejections (CMEs).…

Rare weather and climate events, such as heat waves and floods, can bring tremendous social costs. Climate data is often limited in duration and spatial coverage, and climate forecasting has often turned to simulations of climate models to…

Extreme value theory is concerned with probabilistic and statistical questions related to very high or very low values in sequences of random variables and in stochastic processes. The subject has a rich mathematical theory and also a long…

Solar flares are the largest energy-release events in the Solar System, allowing us to study fundamental physical phenomena under extreme conditions. Those include magnetic reconnection, particle acceleration, radiation transport, and…

Solar flares and coronal mass ejections are interrelated phenomena that together are known as solar eruptive events. These are the main drivers of space weather and understanding their origins is a primary goal of Heliophysics. In this…

High energy solar flares and coronal mass ejections have the potential to destroy Earth's ground and satellite infrastructures, causing trillions of dollars in damage and mass human suffering. Destruction of these critical systems would…

Ions and electrons accelerated to high energies during flares and coronal mass ejections at the Sun may escape the solar atmosphere and, guided by the interplanetary magnetic fields, propagate through space to near-Earth locations. These…