相关论文: On the relative role of different age groups durin…

Optimization of vaccine allocations among different segments of a heterogeneous population is important for enhancing the effectiveness of vaccination campaigns in reducing the burden of epidemics. Intuitively, it would seem that…

Non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs), and in particular social distancing, in conjunction with the advent of effective vaccines at the end of 2020, aspired for the development of a protective immunity shield against the spread of…

Pandemics have the potential to cause immense disruption and damage to communities and societies. In this paper, we model the Influenza Pandemic of 2009. We propose a hybrid model to determine how the pandemic spreads through the world. The…

Influenza has been circulating in the human population and has caused three pandemics in the last century (1918 H1N1, 1957 H2N2, 1968 H3N2). The 2009 A(H1N1) was classified by the World Health Organization (WHO) as the fourth pandemic.…

Background: Influenza A/H3N2 has been circulating in humans since 1968, causing considerable morbidity and mortality. Although H3N2 incidence is highly seasonal, how such seasonality contributes to global phylogeographic migration dynamics…

We examine salient trends of influenza pandemics in Australia, a rapidly urbanizing nation. To do so, we implement state-of-the-art influenza transmission and progression models within a large-scale stochastic computer simulation, generated…

Public health interventions are a fundamental tool for mitigating the spread of an infectious disease. However, it is not always possible to obtain a conclusive estimate for the impact of an intervention, especially in situations where the…

Common respiratory viruses cause seasonal epidemics in sequential patterns. The underlying mechanisms for this pattern have been debated for some time. For influenza, contenders include temperature, humidity, and vitamin D levels. While…

Background: There is a lack of population-based studies on the effectiveness and durability of the SARS-CoV-2-induced immune protection during the Omicron wave. Methods: This retrospective study included 470 159 cases aged 60 years or…

Flu circulates all over the world. The worldwide infection places a substantial burden on people's health every year. Regardless of the characteristic of the worldwide circulation of flu, most previous studies focused on regional prediction…

In this paper we analyze the impact of vaccinations on spread of the COVID-19 virus for different age groups. More specifically we examine the deployment of vaccines in the Nordic countries in a comparative analysis where we analyze factors…

Background School closures and distance learning have been extensively applied to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Despite evidence of viral circulation in schools, the contribution of students and of in-person schooling to the transmission…

The data of the 2009 A(H1N1) epidemic in Istanbul, Turkey is unique in terms of the collected data, which include not only the hospitalization but also the fatality information recorded during the pandemic. The analysis of this data…

Understanding the impact of different social interactions is key to improving epidemic models. Here, we use extensive registry data -- including PCR test results and population-level networks -- to investigate the impact of school, family,…

Forecasting the future course of epidemics has always been one of the main goals of epidemic modelling. This chapter reviews statistical methods to quantify the accuracy of epidemic forecasts. We distinguish point and probabilistic…

The impact of climate conditions on influenza epidemiology has mostly been studied by addressing a singular aspect of transmission and a climate variable correlating to it. As climate change unfolds at an unprecedented rate, we urgently…

Aims: Nonpharmaceutical interventions against the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany included the cancellation of mass events (from March 8), closures of schools and child day care facilities (from March 16) as well as a "lockdown" (from March…

Large data sets comprising diagnoses about chronic conditions are becoming increasingly available for research purposes. In Germany, it is planned that aggregated claims data including medical diagnoses from the statutory health insurance…

Early prediction of the prevalence of influenza reduces its impact. Various studies have been conducted to predict the number of influenza-infected people. However, these studies are not highly accurate especially in the distant future such…

The main idea in this paper is that the age associated with reported measles cases can be used to estimate the number of undetected measles infections. Somewhat surprisingly, even with age only to the nearest year, estimates of…