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This paper presents a novel semiparametric method to study the effects of extreme events on binary outcomes and subsequently forecast future outcomes. Our approach, based on Bayes' theorem and regularly varying (RV) functions, facilitates a…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-02-25 Laura Liu , Yulong Wang

The paper is devoted to a comprehensive study of composite models in variational analysis and optimization the importance of which for numerous theoretical, algorithmic, and applied issues of operations research is difficult to overstate.…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2019-12-10 Ashkan Mohammadi , Boris S. Mordukhovich , M. Ebrahim Sarabi

Identifying directions where extreme events occur is a major challenge in multivariate extreme value analysis. In this paper, we use the concept of sparse regular variation introduced by Meyer and Wintenberger (2021)} to infer the tail…

统计理论 · 数学 2023-01-09 Nicolas Meyer , Olivier Wintenberger

The extreme values theory presents specific tools for modeling and predicting extreme phenomena. In particular, risk assessment is often analyzed through measures for tail dependence and high values clustering. Despite technological…

统计理论 · 数学 2020-03-23 Helena Ferreira , Marta Ferreira

We characterize the complex, heavy-tailed probability distribution functions (pdf) describing the response and its local extrema for structural systems subjected to random forcing that includes extreme events. Our approach is based on the…

混沌动力学 · 物理学 2017-06-02 Han Kyul Joo , Mustafa A. Mohamad , Themistoklis P. Sapsis

In this paper, we introduce a new class of models for spatial data obtained from max-convolution processes based on indicator kernels with random shape. We show that this class of models have appealing dependence properties including tail…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-10-17 Pavel Krupskii , Raphaël Huser

We consider the problem of probabilistic quantification of dynamical systems that have heavy-tailed characteristics. These heavy-tailed features are associated with rare transient responses due to the occurrence of internal instabilities.…

计算物理 · 物理学 2017-06-02 Mustafa A. Mohamad , Will Cousins , Themistoklis P. Sapsis

We propose new statistical tests, in high-dimensional settings, for testing the independence of two random vectors and their conditional independence given a third random vector. The key idea is simple, i.e., we first transform each…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-01-28 Jinyuan Chang , Yue Du , Jing He , Qiwei Yao

The estimation of large covariance matrices has a high dimensional bias. Correcting for this bias can be reformulated via the tool of Free Probability Theory as a free deconvolution. The goal of this work is a computational and statistical…

概率论 · 数学 2023-05-10 Reda Chhaibi , Fabrice Gamboa , Slim Kammoun , Mauricio Velasco

The present article is devoted to the semi-parametric estimation of multivariate expectiles for extreme levels. The considered multivariate risk measures also include the possible conditioning with respect to a functional covariate,…

统计理论 · 数学 2023-03-30 Elena Di Bernardino , Thomas Laloë , Cambyse Pakzad

A $d$-dimensional random array on a nonempty set $I$ is a stochastic process $\boldsymbol{X}=\langle X_s:s\in \binom{I}{d}\rangle$ indexed by the set $\binom{I}{d}$ of all $d$-element subsets of $I$. We obtain structural decompositions of…

概率论 · 数学 2025-02-18 Pandelis Dodos , Konstantinos Tyros , Petros Valettas

We develop adaptive estimation and inference methods for high-dimensional Gaussian copula regression that achieve the same performance without the knowledge of the marginal transformations as that for high-dimensional linear regression.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2015-12-09 T. Tony Cai , Linjun Zhang

We propose a vector generalized additive modeling framework for taking into account the effect of covariates on angular density functions in a multivariate extreme value context. The proposed methods are tailored for settings where the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-11-28 Linda Mhalla , Miguel de Carvalho , Valérie Chavez-Demoulin

The extreme value dependence of regularly varying stationary time series can be described by the spectral tail process. Drees, Segers and Warchol [Extremes 18(3): 369--402, 2015] proposed estimators of the marginal distributions of this…

统计理论 · 数学 2019-07-23 Holger Drees , Miran Knezevic

The relationship between a response variable and its covariates can vary significantly, especially in scenarios where covariates take on extremely high or low values. This paper introduces a max-linear tail regression model specifically…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-02-24 Liujun Chen , Deyuan Li , Zhengjun Zhang

We investigate the problem of detecting dependencies between the components of a high-dimensional vector. Our approach advances the existing literature in two important respects. First, we consider the problem under privacy constraints.…

统计理论 · 数学 2026-03-24 Patrick Bastian , Holger Dette , Martin Dunsche

We consider a family of multivariate distributions with heavy-tailed margins and the type I elliptical dependence structure. This class of risks is common in finance, insurance, environmental and biostatistic applications. We obtain the…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-05-01 Kai Wang , Chengxiu Ling

We study heavy-tailed Hermitian random matrices that are unitarily invariant. The invariance implies that the eigenvalue and eigenvector statistics are decoupled. The motivating question has been whether a freely stable random matrix has…

数学物理 · 物理学 2021-09-27 Mario Kieburg , Adam Monteleone

The goal of this paper is to investigate the tools of extreme value theory originally introduced for discrete time stationary stochastic processes (time series), namely the tail process and the tail measure, in the framework of continuous…

概率论 · 数学 2021-03-31 Philippe Soulier

The classical tail dependence coefficient (TDC) may fail to capture non-exchangeable features of tail dependence due to its restrictive focus on the diagonal of the underlying copula. To address this limitation, the framework of path-based…

风险管理 · 定量金融 2026-04-08 Takaaki Koike , Marius Hofert , Haruki Tsunekawa