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This work introduces the minimax Laplace transform method, a modification of the cumulant-based matrix Laplace transform method developed in "User-friendly tail bounds for sums of random matrices" (arXiv:1004.4389v6) that yields both upper…

概率论 · 数学 2011-07-22 Alex Gittens , Joel A. Tropp

We characterise the learning of a mixture of two clouds of data points with generic centroids via empirical risk minimisation in the high dimensional regime, under the assumptions of generic convex loss and convex regularisation. Each cloud…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-03-19 Urte Adomaityte , Gabriele Sicuro , Pierpaolo Vivo

Tail dependence models for distributions attracted to a max-stable law are fitted using observations above a high threshold. To cope with spatial, high-dimensional data, a rank-based M-estimator is proposed relying on bivariate margins…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2015-01-12 John Einmahl , Anna Kiriliouk , Andrea Krajina , Johan Segers

Codifference is a commonly used measure of dependence for stable vectors and processes for which covariance is infinite. However, we argue that it can also be used for other heavy-tail distributions and it provides useful information for…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-12-17 Jakub Ślęzak

This article discusses modelling of the tail of a multivariate distribution function by means of a large deviation principle (LDP), and its application to the estimation of the probability of a multivariate extreme event from a sample of n…

统计理论 · 数学 2017-02-23 Cees de Valk

We consider a $p$-dimensional time series where the dimension $p$ increases with the sample size $n$. The resulting data matrix $X$ follows a stochastic volatility model: each entry consists of a positive random volatility term multiplied…

概率论 · 数学 2020-01-15 Johannes Heiny , Thomas Mikosch

The probabilistic characterization of the relationship between two or more random variables calls for a notion of dependence. Dependence modeling leads to mathematical and statistical challenges, and recent developments in extremal…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-03-11 Giovanni Puccetti , Ruodu Wang

In this paper we study precise large deviations for the partial sums of a stationary sequence with a subexponential marginal distribution. Our main focus is on distributions which either have a regularly varying or a lognormal-type tail. We…

概率论 · 数学 2020-09-15 Thomas Mikosch , Igor Rodionov

This paper studies kernel ridge regression in high dimensions under covariate shifts and analyzes the role of importance re-weighting. We first derive the asymptotic expansion of high dimensional kernels under covariate shifts. By a…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-06-06 Yihang Chen , Fanghui Liu , Taiji Suzuki , Volkan Cevher

Multivariate extreme value theory is concerned with modeling the joint tail behavior of several random variables. Existing work mostly focuses on asymptotic dependence, where the probability of observing a large value in one of the…

统计理论 · 数学 2022-07-11 Michaël Lalancette , Sebastian Engelke , Stanislav Volgushev

The concept of intermediate tail dependence is useful if one wants to quantify the degree of positive dependence in the tails when there is no strong evidence of presence of the usual tail dependence. We first review existing studies on…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2012-12-05 Lei Hua , Harry Joe

A recent body of work has demonstrated that Transformer embeddings can be linearly decomposed into well-defined sums of factors, that can in turn be related to specific network inputs or components. There is however still a dearth of work…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2023-10-12 Timothee Mickus , Raúl Vázquez

In the world of multivariate extremes, estimation of the dependence structure still presents a challenge and an interesting problem. A procedure for the bivariate case is presented that opens the road to a similar way of handling the…

统计理论 · 数学 2008-11-14 John H. J. Einmahl , Andrea Krajina , Johan Segers

Among bivariate tail dependence measures, the tail dependence coefficient has emerged as the popular choice. Akin to the correlation matrix, a multivariate dependence measure is constructed using these bivariate measures, and this is…

统计理论 · 数学 2019-08-02 Nariankadu D. Shyamalkumar , Siyang Tao

High-dimensional time series has diverse applications in econometrics and finance. Recent models for capturing temporal dependence have employed a bilinear representation for matrix time series, or the Tucker-decomposition based…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-06-03 Debika Ghosh , Samrat Roy , Nilanjana Chakraborty

We introduce a dimension-free Bernstein-type tail inequality for self-normalised martingales, where the normalisation uses the predictable quadratic variation and the radius depends on the information gain of the observed covariance. As…

概率论 · 数学 2026-05-19 Arya Akhavan , Amitis Shidani , Alex Ayoub , David Janz

We establish a statistical learning theoretical framework aimed at extrapolation, or out-of-domain generalization, on the unobserved tails of covariates in continuous regression problems. Our strategy involves performing statistical…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-09-15 Stephan Clémençon , Nathan Huet , Anne Sabourin

We introduce a statistical model for operational losses based on heavy-tailed distributions and bipartite graphs, which captures the event type and business line structure of operational risk data. The model explicitly takes into account…

风险管理 · 定量金融 2019-02-11 Oliver Kley , Claudia Klüppelberg , Sandra Paterlini

We develop a generalisation of disentanglement in VAEs---decomposition of the latent representation---characterising it as the fulfilment of two factors: a) the latent encodings of the data having an appropriate level of overlap, and b) the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-06-13 Emile Mathieu , Tom Rainforth , N. Siddharth , Yee Whye Teh

Gaussian scale mixtures are constructed as Gaussian processes with a random variance. They have non-Gaussian marginals and can exhibit asymptotic dependence unlike Gaussian processes, which are asymptotically independent except in the case…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-01-31 Raphael Huser , Thomas Opitz , Emeric Thibaud