相关论文: Yule's "Nonsense Correlation" Solved!
The purpose of this paper is to provide an exact formula for the second moment of the empirical correlation of two independent Gaussian random walks as well as implicit formulas for higher moments. The proofs are based on a symbolically…
In 1926, G. Udny Yule considered the following: given a sequence of pairs of random variables $\{X_k,Y_k \}$ ($k=1,2, \ldots, n$), and letting $X_i = S_i$ and $Y_ i= S'_i$ where $S_i$ and $S'_i$ are the partial sums of two independent…
We study the continuous-time version of the empirical correlation coefficient between the paths of two possibly correlated Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes, known as Yule's nonsense correlation for these paths. Using sharp tools from the…
In this paper, we study the distribution of the so-called "Yule's nonsense correlation statistic" on a time interval $[0,T]$ for a time horizon $T>0$ , when $T$ is large, for a pair $(X_{1},X_{2})$ of independent Ornstein-Uhlenbeck…
Yule (1926) identified the issue of "nonsense correlations" in time series data, where dependence within each of two random vectors causes overdispersion -- i.e. variance inflation -- for measures of dependence between the two. During the…
In 2011, Wooten introduced Non-Response Analysis the founding theory in Implicit Regression where Implicit Regression treats the variables implicitly as codependent variables and not as an explicit function with dependent or independent…
We show that time-correlation functions of arbitrary order for any random variable in a statistical dynamical system can be calculated as higher-order response functions of the mean history of the variable. The response is to a ``control…
Correlated proportions arise in longitudinal (panel) studies. A typical example is the ``opinion swing'' problem: ``Has the proportion of people favoring a politician changed after his recent speech to the nation on TV?''. Since the same…
Thermodynamic uncertainty relations quantify how the signal-to-noise ratio of a given observable is constrained by dissipation. Fluctuation relations generalize the second law of thermodynamics to stochastic processes. We show that any…
In the Wiener disorder problem, the drift of a Wiener process changes suddenly at some unknown and unobservable disorder time. The objective is to detect this change as quickly as possible after it happens. Earlier work on the Bayesian…
One solution to a relatively recent American Mathematical Monthly problem [6], requesting the evaluation of a real definite integral, could be couched in terms of a contour integral which vanishes {\textit{a priori.}} While the required…
Solvable matrix product and projected entangled pair states evolved by dual and ternary-unitary quantum circuits have analytically accessible correlation functions. Here, we investigate the influence of disorder. Specifically, we compute…
In modeling multivariate time series for either forecast or policy analysis, it would be beneficial to have figured out the cause-effect relations within the data. Regression analysis, however, is generally for correlation relation, and…
The time series with periodic behavior, such as the periodic autoregressive (PAR) models belonging to the class of the periodically correlated processes, are present in various real applications. In the literature, such processes were…
We calculate the two-point correlation function <x(t2)x(t1)> for a subdiffusive continuous time random walk in a parabolic potential, generalizing well-known results for the single-time statistics to two times. A closed analytical…
Many of the classical and recent relations between information and estimation in the presence of Gaussian noise can be viewed as identities between expectations of random quantities. These include the I-MMSE relationship of Guo et al.; the…
We consider so-called univariate unlinked (sometimes ``decoupled,'' or ``shuffled'') regression when the unknown regression curve is monotone. In standard monotone regression, one observes a pair $(X,Y)$ where a response $Y$ is linked to a…
By using recent developments for the Langevin dynamics of spatially asymmetric systems, we routinely generalize the Onsager-Machlup fluctuation theory of the second order in time. In this form, it becomes applicable to fluctuating…
We focus on the problem estimating a monotone trend function under additive and dependent noise. New point-wise confidence interval estimators under both short- and long-range dependent errors are introduced and studied. These intervals are…
Causality analysis is an important problem lying at the heart of science, and is of particular importance in data science and machine learning. An endeavor during the past 16 years viewing causality as real physical notion so as to…