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The unit selection problem aims to identify a set of individuals who are most likely to exhibit a desired mode of behavior, for example, selecting individuals who would respond one way if encouraged and a different way if not encouraged.…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2021-09-17 Ang Li , Judea Pearl

In this paper we analyse financial implications of exchangeability and similar properties of finite dimensional random vectors. We show how these properties are reflected in prices of some basket options in view of the well-known put-call…

证券定价 · 定量金融 2011-04-05 Ilya Molchanov , Michael Schmutz

This paper studies nonparametric identification in market level demand models for differentiated products with heterogeneous consumers. We consider a general class of models that allows for the individual specific coefficients to vary…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2022-01-19 Fabian Dunker , Stefan Hoderlein , Hiroaki Kaido

We present a new latent-variable model employing a Gaussian mixture integrated with a feature selection procedure (the Bernoulli part of the model) which together form a "Latent Bernoulli-Gauss" distribution. The model is applied to MAP…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2010-07-06 Amnon Shashua , Gabi Pragier

For general penalized Markov processes with soft killing, we propose a simple criterion ensuring uniform convergence of conditional distributions in Wasserstein distance to a unique quasi-stationary distribution. We give several examples of…

概率论 · 数学 2025-11-13 Nicolas Champagnat , Edouard Strickler , Denis Villemonais

According to the Wiener-Hopf factorization, the characteristic function $\varphi$ of any probability distribution $\mu$ on $\mathbb{R}$ can be decomposed in a unique way as…

概率论 · 数学 2017-11-29 Loïc Chaumont , Ron Doney

This paper presents comparison results and establishes risk bounds for credit portfolios within classes of Bernoulli mixture models, assuming conditionally independent defaults that are stochastically increasing with a common risk factor.…

风险管理 · 定量金融 2025-12-24 Jonathan Ansari , Eva Lütkebohmert

The implications of one gluon exchange generated configuration mixing in the Chiral Quark Model ($\chi$QM$_{gcm}$) with SU(3) and axial U(1) symmetry breakings are discussed in the context of proton flavor and spin structure as well as the…

高能物理 - 唯象学 · 物理学 2009-10-31 Harleen Dahiya , Manmohan Gupta

We examine the issue of stability of probability in reasoning about complex systems with uncertainty in structure. Normally, propositions are viewed as probability functions on an abstract random graph where it is implicitly assumed that…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2017-12-14 Subhash Kak

In this paper, we characterize compatibility of distributions and probability measures on a measurable space. For a set of indices $\mathcal J$, we say that the tuples of probability measures $(Q_i)_{i\in \mathcal J} $ and distributions…

概率论 · 数学 2019-04-16 Jie Shen , Yi Shen , Bin Wang , Ruodu Wang

The unit selection problem aims to identify a set of individuals who are most likely to exhibit a desired mode of behavior, for example, selecting individuals who would respond one way if encouraged and a different way if not encouraged.…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2022-08-23 Ang Li , Judea Pearl

The interpretation of feature importance in machine learning models is challenging when features are dependent. Permutation feature importance (PFI) ignores such dependencies, which can cause misleading interpretations due to extrapolation.…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-11-09 Christoph Molnar , Gunnar König , Bernd Bischl , Giuseppe Casalicchio

We study II_1 factors M and N associated with good generalized Bernoulli actions of groups having an infinite almost normal subgroup with the relative property (T). We prove the following rigidity result: every finite index M-N-bimodule (in…

算子代数 · 数学 2009-01-20 Stefaan Vaes

Permutation tests are a powerful and flexible approach to inference via resampling. As computational methods become more ubiquitous in the statistics curriculum, use of permutation tests has become more tractable. At the heart of the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-06-09 Johanna Hardin , Lauren Quesada , Julie Ye , Nicholas J. Horton

A simple mechanism for allocating indivisible resources is sequential allocation in which agents take turns to pick items. We focus on possible and necessary allocation problems, checking whether allocations of a given form occur in some or…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2014-12-09 Haris Aziz , Toby Walsh , Lirong Xia

The study of sums of possibly associated Bernoulli random variables has been hampered by an asymmetry between positive correlation and negative correlation. The Conway-Maxwell Binomial (COMB) distribution and its multivariate extension, the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2014-04-08 Joseph B. Kadane

The need to condition distributional properties such as expectation, variance, and entropy arises in algorithmic fairness, model simplification, robustness and many other areas. At face value however, distributional properties are not…

编程语言 · 计算机科学 2019-03-27 Zenna Tavares , Xin Zhang , Edgar Minaysan , Javier Burroni , Rajesh Ranganath , Armando Solar Lezama

We present new sampling methods in finite population that allow to control the joint inclusion probabilities of units and especially the spreading of sampled units in the population. They are based on the use of renewal chains and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-04-12 Yves Tillé , Lionel Qualité , Matthieu Wilhelm

Many popular Bayesian nonparametric priors can be characterized in terms of exchangeable species sampling sequences. However, in some applications, exchangeability may not be appropriate. We introduce a {novel and probabilistically coherent…

There is currently a renewed interest in the Bayesian predictive approach to statistics. This paper offers a review on foundational concepts and focuses on predictive modeling, which by directly reasoning on prediction, bypasses inferential…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-11-22 Sandra Fortini , Sonia Petrone