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The comparison of benchmark error sets is an essential tool for the evaluation of theories in computational chemistry. The standard ranking of methods by their Mean Unsigned Error is unsatisfactory for several reasons linked to the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-09-29 Pascal Pernot , Andreas Savin

We continue development of the theory of Markov systems initiated in \cite{Wer1}. In this paper, we introduce fundamental Markov systems associated with random dynamical systems and show that the proof of the uniqueness and empiricalness of…

概率论 · 数学 2009-02-09 Ivan Werner

This paper studies the exponential stability of random matrix products driven by a general (possibly unbounded) state space Markov chain. It is a cornerstone in the analysis of stochastic algorithms in machine learning (e.g. for parameter…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-02-02 Alain Durmus , Eric Moulines , Alexey Naumov , Sergey Samsonov , Hoi-To Wai

We extend Hoeffding's lemma to general-state-space and not necessarily reversible Markov chains. Let $\{X_i\}_{i \ge 1}$ be a stationary Markov chain with invariant measure $\pi$ and absolute spectral gap $1-\lambda$, where $\lambda$ is…

统计理论 · 数学 2018-07-19 Jianqing Fan , Bai Jiang , Qiang Sun

Inference, prediction and control of complex dynamical systems from time series is important in many areas, including financial markets, power grid management, climate and weather modeling, or molecular dynamics. The analysis of such highly…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-08-19 Hao Wu , Frank Noé

The linear Markov Decision Process (MDP) framework offers a principled foundation for reinforcement learning (RL) with strong theoretical guarantees and sample efficiency. However, its restrictive assumption-that both transition dynamics…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-06-03 Sinian Zhang , Kaicheng Zhang , Ziping Xu , Tianxi Cai , Doudou Zhou

Computational procedures for the stationary probability distribution, the group inverse of the Markovian kernel and the mean first passage times of an irreducible Markov chain, are developed using perturbations. The derivation of these…

概率论 · 数学 2016-10-12 Jeffrey J. Hunter

We consider Markov basis arising from fractional factorial designs with three-level factors. Once we have a Markov basis, $p$ values for various conditional tests are estimated by the Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure. For designed…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2009-11-22 Satoshi Aoki , Akimichi Takemura

The vector autoregression (VAR) has been widely used in system identification, econometrics, natural science, and many other areas. However, when the state dimension becomes large the parameter dimension explodes. So rank reduced modelling…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-10-04 Xinhui Rong , Victor Solo

Conditional distributions, as defined by the Markov category framework, are studied in the setting of matrix algebras (quantum systems). Their construction as linear unital maps are obtained via a categorical Bayesian inversion procedure.…

量子物理 · 物理学 2021-09-14 Arthur J. Parzygnat

Deriving the time-dependent expected reward function associated with a continuous-time Markov chain involves the computation of its transient deviation matrix. In this paper we focus on the special case of a finite quasi-birth-and-death…

概率论 · 数学 2017-02-10 Sarah Dendievel , Sophie Hautphenne , Guy Latouche , Peter Taylor

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to sample from a probability distribution $\pi$ defined on a space $(\Theta,\mathcal{T})$ consist of the simulation of realisations of Markov chains $\{\theta_{n},n\geq1\}$ of invariant distribution…

统计计算 · 统计学 2021-01-06 Christophe Andrieu , Sinan Yıldırım , Arnaud Doucet , Nicolas Chopin

Cross-sectional observations from a dynamical system can be modeled via steady-state distributions of Markov processes. The major challenge is then to determine whether the process parameters can be identified and estimated from the…

统计理论 · 数学 2026-03-19 Cecilie Olesen Recke , Niels Richard Hansen

An expansion of row Markov matrices in terms of matrices related to permutations with repetitions, is introduced.It generalises the Birkhoff-von Neumann expansion of doubly stochastic matrices in terms of permutation matrices (without…

量子物理 · 物理学 2021-05-27 A. Vourdas

This paper is a survey of various proofs of the so called {\em fundamental theorem of Markov chains}: every ergodic Markov chain has a unique positive stationary distribution and the chain attains this distribution in the limit independent…

概率论 · 数学 2022-04-05 Somenath Biswas

Markov chains are fundamental models for stochastic dynamics, with applications in a wide range of areas such as population dynamics, queueing systems, reinforcement learning, and Monte Carlo methods. Estimating the transition matrix and…

统计理论 · 数学 2026-01-26 Lasse Leskelä , Maximilien Dreveton

In many autonomy applications, performance of perception algorithms is important for effective planning and control. In this paper, we introduce a framework for computing the probability of satisfaction of formal system specifications given…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2021-05-18 Apurva Badithela , Tichakorn Wongpiromsarn , Richard M. Murray

We introduce the matrix-valued time-varying Main Effects Factor Model (MEFM). MEFM is a generalization to the traditional matrix-valued factor model (FM). We give rigorous definitions of MEFM and its identifications, and propose estimators…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-06-04 Clifford Lam , Zetai Cen

Stochastic (Markovian) process algebra extend classical process algebra with probabilistic exponentially distributed time durations denoted by rates (the parameter of the exponential distribution). Defining a semantics for such an algebra,…

计算机科学中的逻辑 · 计算机科学 2015-12-23 Mario Bravetti

A generalization of the entropy production rate is proposed $\Pi_q$ in non-equilibrium systems by extending the formalism of classical stochastic thermodynamics to regimes with non-Gaussian fluctuations. Through the R\'enyi entropy $S_q$ ,…

统计力学 · 物理学 2025-10-02 J. M. Nieto-Villar , R. Mansilla , I. Santamaria-Holek