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We review criteria for comparing the efficiency of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods with respect to the asymptotic variance of estimates of expectations of functions of state, and show how such criteria can justify ways of combining…

概率论 · 数学 2025-02-19 Radford M. Neal , Jeffrey S. Rosenthal

Outliers contaminating data sets are a challenge to statistical estimators. Even a small fraction of outlying observations can heavily influence most classical statistical methods. In this paper we propose generalized spherical principal…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-03-13 Sarah Leyder , Jakob Raymaekers , Tim Verdonck

Policy Iteration (PI) is a classical family of algorithms to compute an optimal policy for any given Markov Decision Problem (MDP). The basic idea in PI is to begin with some initial policy and to repeatedly update the policy to one from an…

A multi--state life insurance model is naturally described in terms of the intensity matrix of an underlying (time--inhomogeneous) Markov process which describes the dynamics for the states of an insured person. Between and at transitions,…

概率论 · 数学 2019-05-14 Mogens Bladt , Søren Asmussen , Mogens Steffensen

Consider the problem of approximating the optimal policy of a Markov decision process (MDP) by sampling state transitions. In contrast to existing reinforcement learning methods that are based on successive approximations to the nonlinear…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2017-10-18 Mengdi Wang

We develop a model for credit rating migration that accounts for the impact of economic state fluctuations on default probabilities. The joint process for the economic state and the rating is modelled as a time-homogeneous Markov chain.…

风险管理 · 定量金融 2024-03-25 Michael Kalkbrener , Natalie Packham

We review and provide new proofs of results used to compare the efficiency of estimates generated by reversible MCMC algorithms on a general state space. We provide a full proof of the formula for the asymptotic variance for real-valued…

概率论 · 数学 2024-08-09 Geoffrey T. Salmon , Jeffrey S. Rosenthal

We consider evaluating improper priors in a formal Bayes setting according to the consequences of their use. Let $\Phi$ be a class of functions on the parameter space and consider estimating elements of $\Phi$ under quadratic loss. If the…

统计理论 · 数学 2011-09-07 Brian P. Shea , Galin L. Jones

Markov decision processes (MDP) and continuous-time MDP (CTMDP) are the fundamental models for non-deterministic systems with probabilistic uncertainty. Mean payoff (a.k.a. long-run average reward) is one of the most classic objectives…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2022-06-06 Chaitanya Agarwal , Shibashis Guha , Jan Křetínský , M. Pazhamalai

We present two methodologies on the estimation of rating transition probabilities within Markov and non-Markov frameworks. We first estimate a continuous-time Markov chain using discrete (missing) data and derive a simpler expression for…

风险管理 · 定量金融 2020-02-04 Marius Pfeuffer , Goncalo dos Reis , Greig smith

In this work, we design quantum algorithms that are more efficient than classical algorithms to solve time-dependent and finite-horizon Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) in two distinct settings: (1) In the exact dynamics setting, where the…

量子物理 · 物理学 2025-08-11 Bin Luo , Yuwen Huang , Jonathan Allcock , Xiaojun Lin , Shengyu Zhang , John C. S. Lui

Discrete-time Markov Chains (MCs) and Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are two standard formalisms in system analysis. Their main associated quantitative objectives are hitting probabilities, discounted sum, and mean payoff. Although there…

数据结构与算法 · 计算机科学 2020-04-21 Ali Asadi , Krishnendu Chatterjee , Amir Kafshdar Goharshady , Kiarash Mohammadi , Andreas Pavlogiannis

We study from a theoretical viewpoint the fundamental problem of efficiently computing the stationary distribution of general classes of structured Markov processes. In strong contrast with previous work, we consider this fundamental…

量子物理 · 物理学 2025-06-18 Vasileios Kalantzis , Mark S. Squillante , Shashanka Ubaru

The long-run average payoff per transition (mean payoff) is the main tool for specifying the performance and dependability properties of discrete systems. The problem of constructing a controller (strategy) simultaneously optimizing several…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2024-12-19 David Klaška , Antonín Kučera , Vojtěch Kůr , Vít Musil , Vojtěch Řehák

A new mechanism for efficiently solving the Markov decision processes (MDPs) is proposed in this paper. We introduce the notion of reachability landscape where we use the Mean First Passage Time (MFPT) as a means to characterize the…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2019-01-10 Shoubhik Debnath , Lantao Liu , Gaurav Sukhatme

Embedded random matrix ensembles are generic models for describing statistical properties of finite isolated interacting quantum many-particle systems. For the simplest spinless systems, with say $m$ particles in $N$ single particle states…

量子物理 · 物理学 2015-04-06 V. K. B. Kota , Manan Vyas

In this paper, we provide a novel algorithm for solving planning and learning problems of Markov decision processes. The proposed algorithm follows a policy iteration-type update by using a rank-one approximation of the transition…

Grover's algorithm is a cornerstone of quantum search algorithm, offering quadratic speedup for unstructured problems. However, limited qubit counts and noise in today's noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices hinder large-scale…

量子物理 · 物理学 2026-01-08 Mei Ian Sam , Tzu-Ling Kuo , Tai-Yue Li

Let S be a denumerable state space and let P be a transition probability matrix on S. If a denumerable set M of nonnegative matrices is such that the sum of the matrices is equal to P, then we call M a partition of P. Let K denote the set…

概率论 · 数学 2011-03-08 Thomas Kaijser

If A_1,...,A_N are real square matrices then the p-radius, generalised Lyapunov exponent or matrix pressure is defined to be the asymptotic exponential growth rate of the sum $\sum_{i_1,\ldots,i_n=1}^N \|A_{i_n}\cdots A_{i_1}\|^p$, where p…

动力系统 · 数学 2019-05-03 Ian D. Morris