相关论文: Deciphering infant mortality. Part 1: empirical ev…

In studying the time evolution of isolated many-body quantum systems, a key focus is determining whether the system undergoes relaxation and reaches a steady state at a given point in time. Traditional approaches often rely on specific…

Theoretical analysis proves that human survivability is dominated by an unusual physical, rather than biological, mechanism, which yields an exact law. The law agrees with all experimental data, but, contrary to existing theories, it is the…

A feature of human creativity is the ability to take a subset of existing items (e.g. objects, ideas, or techniques) and combine them in various ways to give rise to new items, which, in turn, fuel further growth. Occasionally, some of…

We study the stability of deterministic systems given sequences of large, jump-like perturbations. Our main result is to dervie a lower bound for the probability of the system to remain in the basin, given that perturbations are rare…

We introduce a population-age-time (PAT) model which describes the temporal evolution of the population distribution in age. The surprising result is that the qualitative nature of the population distribution dynamics is robust with respect…

For a random walk on the integer lattice $\mathbb{Z}$ that is attracted to a strictly stable process with index $\alpha\in (1, 2)$ we obtain the asymptotic form of the transition probability for the walk killed when it hits a finite set.…

Motivated by the wide range of known self-replicating systems, some far from genetics, we study a system composed by individuals having an internal dynamics with many possible states that are partially stable, with varying mutation rates.…

This paper investigates the causal relationship between income shocks during the first years of life and adulthood mortality due to specific causes of death. Using all death records in the United States during 1968-2004 for individuals who…

In this paper, we discuss the impact of some mortality data anomalies on an internal model capturing longevity risk in the Solvency 2 framework. In particular, we are concerned with abnormal cohort effects such as those for generations 1919…

Perinatal epidemiology often aims to evaluate exposures on infant outcomes. When the exposure affects the composition of people who give birth to live infants (e.g., by affecting fertility, behavior, or birth outcomes), this "live birth…

We consider extinction times for a class of birth-death processes commonly found in applications, where there is a control parameter which determines whether the population quickly becomes extinct, or rather persists for a long time. We…

In this article we study the long time behaviour of measure-valued birth and death processes in continuous time, where the dynamics between jumps are one-dimensional Markov processes including diffusion and jumps. We consider the three…

We investigate what structural aspects of a collection of twelve empirical temporal networks of human contacts are important to disease spreading. We scan the entire parameter spaces of the two canonical models of infectious disease…

We study a fractional birth-death process with state dependent birth and death rates. It is defined using a system of fractional differential equations that generalizes the classical birth-death process introduced by Feller (1939). We…

We introduce an interacting particle system which models the inherited sterility method. Individuals evolve on $\mathbb{Z}^d$ according to a contact process with parameter $\lambda>0$. With probability $p \in [0,1]$ an offspring is fertile…

In order to implement disease-specific interventions in young age groups, policy makers in low- and middle-income countries require timely and accurate estimates of age- and cause-specific child mortality. High quality data is not available…

The probability of the survival of the population of individuals of both sexes of given mature age, procreation rate and structure stability has been searched in the numerical experiment. The populations with long period of reproduction and…

In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, empirical data have revealed that large-scale health crises not only cause immediate disruptions in mortality dynamics but also have persistent effects that may last for several years. Existing…

Mortality rates are often disaggregated by different attributes, such as sex, state, education, religion or ethnicity. Forecasting mortality rates at the national and sub-national levels plays an important role in making social policies…

Different ways of calculating mortality ratios during epidemics have yielded very different results, particularly during the current COVID-19 pandemic. We formulate both a survival probability model and an associated infection…