相关论文: Large deviations for infectious diseases models

Many disease models focus on characterizing the underlying transmission mechanism but make simple, possibly naive assumptions about how infections are reported. In this note, we use a simple deterministic Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR)…

The vast majority of models for the spread of communicable diseases are parametric in nature and involve underlying assumptions about how the disease spreads through a population. In this article we consider the use of Bayesian…

We present a tractable class of one-dimensional McKean-Vlasov equations that allow for unique strong solutions and extend the dynamics of various SIS epidemic models that are well-established in the literature. While the…

The integration of empirical data in computational frameworks to model the spread of infectious diseases poses challenges that are becoming pressing with the increasing availability of high-resolution information on human mobility and…

The existence and local stability of some non-negative equilibrium points of a class of SIRS infectious disease models with non-linear infection and treatment rates are investigated under the condition that the total population is a…

Our study is based on an epidemiological compartmental model, the SIRS model. In the SIRS model, each individual is in one of the states susceptible (S), infected(I) or recovered (R), depending on its state of health. In compartment R, an…

We consider a space-time SI epidemic model with infection age-dependent infectivity and non-local infections constructed on a grid of the torus $\mathbb{T}^1 =(0, 1]^d$, where the individuals may migrate from node to another. The migration…

This paper is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible -> exposed (=latent) -> infective -> removed) epidemic with a contact tracing scheme, in which removed individuals may name some of their infectious…

In these notes we present a pedagogical account of the population dynamics methods recently introduced to simulate large deviation functions of dynamical observables in and out of equilibrium. After a brief introduction on large deviation…

We consider state and parameter estimation for compartmental models having both time-varying and time-invariant parameters. Though the described Bayesian computational framework is general, we look at a specific application to the…

Infectious disease epidemiologists routinely fit stochastic epidemic models to time series data to elucidate infectious disease dynamics, evaluate interventions, and forecast epidemic trajectories. To improve computational tractability,…

We consider the spread of a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease through finite populations and derive an expression for the final size distribution. Our derivation allows arbitrary distributions of the number of transmissions…

In this paper, we present a large-deviation theory developed for functionals of canonical Gibbs processes, i.e., Gibbs processes with respect to the binomial point process. We study the regime of a fixed intensity in a sequence of…

This work examines the discrete-time networked SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) epidemic model, where the infection and recovery parameters may be time-varying. We provide a sufficient condition for the SIR model to converge to the set…

This paper analyses an SIRS-type model for infectious diseases with account for behavioural changes associated with the simultaneous spread of awareness in the population. Two types of awareness are included into the model: private…

The SIR model is used extensively in the field of epidemiology, in particular, for the analysis of communal diseases. One problem with SIR and other existing models is that they are tailored to random or Erdos type networks since they do…

A standard model for epidemics is the SIR model on a graph. We introduce a simple algorithm that uses the early infection times from a sample path of the SIR model to estimate the parameters this model, and we provide a performance…

This brief note highlights a largely overlooked similarity between the SIR ordinary differential equations used for epidemics on the configuration model of a Poisson network and the classical mass-action SIR equations introduced nearly a…

I propose a stochastic SIS and SIRS system to include a Poisson measure term to model anomalies in the dynamics. In particular the positive integrand in the Poisson term is intended to model quarantine. Conditions are given for the…

Modeling epidemic dynamics plays an important role in studying how diseases spread, predicting their future course, and designing strategies to control them. In this letter, we introduce a model of SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) type…