相关论文: A pragmatic Bayesian perspective on correlation an…

The analysis of multivariate functional curves has the potential to yield important scientific discoveries in domains such as healthcare, medicine, economics and social sciences. However, it is common for real-world settings to present…

To date, the radial velocity (RV) method has been one of the most productive techniques for detecting and confirming extrasolar planetary candidates. Unfortunately, stellar activity can induce RV variations which can drown out or even mimic…

The Bayesian approach to data analysis provides a powerful way to handle uncertainty in all observations, model parameters, and model structure using probability theory. Probabilistic programming languages make it easier to specify and fit…

While observational data are routinely used to estimate causal effects of biomedical treatments, doing so requires special methods to adjust for observed confounding. These methods invariably rely on untestable statistical and causal…

Stellar activity due to different processes (magnetic activity, photospheric flows) affects the measurement of radial velocities (RV). Radial velocities have been widely used to detect exoplanets, although the stellar signal significantly…

Debate over the existence of branches in the stellar activity-rotation diagrams continues. Application of modern time series analysis tools to study the mean cycle periods in chromospheric activity index is lacking. We develop such models,…

Retrieval of orbital parameters of extrasolar planets poses considerable statistical challenges.Due to sparse sampling, measurement errors, parameters degeneracy and modelling limitations, there are no unique values of basic parameters,…

One may consider cross-correlation routines applied to stellar spectra as a way to determine not only the radial velocities but also to assess the properties of stellar atmospheres. We show that this is not the case. High value of the…

Bayesian evidence is a standard tool used for comparing the ability of different models to fit available data and is used extensively in cosmology. However, since the evidence calculation involves performing an integral of the likelihood…

This thesis focuses on the detection of extrasolar planets via the transit method, and more specifically addresses issues relevant to the preparation of upcoming space missions such as CoRoT, Kepler, Eddington, aiming to detect terrestrial…

For several decades now, Bayesian inference techniques have been applied to theories of particle physics, cosmology and astrophysics to obtain the probability density functions of their free parameters. In this study, we review and compare…

We apply standard Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis techniques for 50 short- period, single-planet systems discovered with radial velocity technique. We develop a new method for accessing the significance of a non-zero orbital…

We present an improved method for calculating the parallel and perpendicular velocity correlation functions directly from peculiar velocity surveys using weighted maximum-likelihood estimators. A central feature of the new method is the use…

Two-particle rapidity (or pseudorapidity) correlation function $C(y_1, y_2)$ was used in analysing fluctuation of particle density distribution in rapidity in high-energy heavy-ion collisions. In our research, we argue that for a centrality…

Bayesian Inference is a powerful approach to data analysis that is based almost entirely on probability theory. In this approach, probabilities model {\it uncertainty} rather than randomness or variability. This thesis is composed of a…

While uncertainty estimation is a well-studied topic in deep learning, most such work focuses on marginal uncertainty estimates, i.e. the predictive mean and variance at individual input locations. But it is often more useful to estimate…

It is suggested that the distribution of orbital eccentricities for extrasolar planets is well-described by the Beta distribution. Several properties of the Beta distribution make it a powerful tool for this purpose. For example, the Beta…

We introduce EXOFIT, a Bayesian tool for estimating orbital parameters of extrasolar planets from radial velocity measurements. EXOFIT can search for either one or two planets at present. EXOFIT employs Markov Chain Monte Carlo method…

Bayesian inference involves the specification of a statistical model by a statistician or practitioner, with careful thought about what each parameter represents. This results in particularly interpretable models which can be used to…

Searches for statistically significant correlations between arrival directions of ultra-high energy cosmic rays and classes of astrophysical objects are common in astroparticle physics. We present a method to test potential correlation…