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We study estimation and inference for heterogeneous principal causal effects with binary treatments and binary intermediate variables. Principal causal effects are subgroup effects within strata defined by potential values of an…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-11 Rui Zhang , Charles R. Doss , Jared D. Huling

Accurate estimation of treatment effects is essential for decision-making across various scientific fields. This task, however, becomes challenging in areas like social sciences and online marketplaces, where treating one experimental unit…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-02-04 Mohsen Bayati , Yuwei Luo , William Overman , Sadegh Shirani , Ruoxuan Xiong

Given the unconfoundedness assumption, we propose new nonparametric estimators for the reduced dimensional conditional average treatment effect (CATE) function. In the first stage, the nuisance functions necessary for identifying CATE are…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2021-07-26 Qingliang Fan , Yu-Chin Hsu , Robert P. Lieli , Yichong Zhang

The target trial framework enables causal inference from longitudinal observational data by emulating randomized trials initiated at multiple time points. Precision is often improved by pooling information across trials, with standard…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-01-08 Edoardo Efrem Gervasoni , Liesbet De Bus , Stijn Vansteelandt , Oliver Dukes

Unmeasured confounding presents a common challenge in observational studies, potentially making standard causal parameters unidentifiable without additional assumptions. Given the increasing availability of diverse data sources, exploiting…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-09-18 Shanshan Luo , Yechi Zhang , Wei Li

Transported mediation effects may contribute to understanding how and why interventions may work differently when applied to new populations. However, we are not aware of any estimators for such effects. Thus, we propose several different…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-06-16 Kara E Rudolph , Jonathan Levy , Mark J van der Laan

We extend the approximate residual balancing (ARB) framework to nonlinear models, answering an open problem posed by Athey et al. (2018). Our approach addresses the challenge of estimating average treatment effects in high-dimensional…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-11-04 Isaac Meza

Mediation analysis seeks to identify and quantify the paths by which an exposure affects an outcome. Intermediate variables which are effected by the exposure and which effect the outcome are known as mediators. There exists extensive work…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-11-13 James P. Long , Ehsan Irajizad , James D. Doecke , Kim-Anh Do , Min Jin Ha

This paper studies the identification, estimation, and inference of long-term (binary) treatment effect parameters when balanced panel data is not available, or consists of only a subset of the available data. We develop a new estimator:…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-02-04 Christophe Bellégo , David Benatia , Vincent Dortet-Bernardet

Long-term outcomes are often unavailable in randomized clinical trials, although short-term surrogate outcomes are commonly observed. External observational data may contain the long-term outcome, but causal comparisons based on such data…

统计理论 · 数学 2026-05-15 Ziyang Liu , Niwen Zhou , Peng Wu , Xu Guo

Nowadays, in many scientific and industrial fields there is an increasing need for estimating treatment effects and answering causal questions. The key for addressing these problems is the wealth of observational data and the processes for…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-05-24 Niki Kiriakidou , Christos Diou

A popular technique for selecting and tuning machine learning estimators is cross-validation. Cross-validation evaluates overall model fit, usually in terms of predictive accuracy. In causal inference, the optimal choice of estimator…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-07-07 Dominik Rothenhäusler

Typically, a randomized experiment is designed to test a hypothesis about the average treatment effect and sometimes hypotheses about treatment effect variation. The results of such a study may then be used to inform policy and practice for…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-01 Elizabeth Tipton , Michalis Mamakos

This study proposes a method to identify treatment effects without exclusion restrictions in randomized experiments with noncompliance. Exploiting a baseline survey commonly available in randomized experiments, I decompose the…

综合经济学 · 经济学 2021-06-03 Masayuki Sawada

The most widely discussed methods for estimating the Average Causal Effect/Average Treatment Effect are those for intervention in discrete binary variables whose value represents intervention/non-intervention groups. On the other hand,…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-03-21 Yoshiaki Kitazawa

We study nonparametric estimation for the partially conditional average treatment effect, defined as the treatment effect function over an interested subset of confounders. We propose a hybrid kernel weighting estimator where the weights…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-03-08 Jiayi Wang , Raymond K. W. Wong , Shu Yang , Kwun Chuen Gary Chan

When individuals engage in social or physical interactions, a unit's outcome may depend on the treatments received by others. In such interference environments, we provide a unified framework characterizing a broad class of spillover…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-16 Fei Fang , Laura Forastiere

A growing statistical literature focuses on causal inference in the context of experiments where the target of inference is the average treatment effect in a finite population and random assignment determines which subjects are allocated to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-09-04 Jonas M. Mikhaeil , Donald P. Green

This paper concerns the estimation of sums of functions of observable and unobservable variables. Lower bounds for the asymptotic variance and a convolution theorem are derived in general finite- and infinite-dimensional models. An explicit…

统计理论 · 数学 2007-06-13 Cun-Hui Zhang

Network interference occurs when a unit's outcome depends not only on its own treatment but also on the treatments received by connected units in the network. Experimental designs and analysis methods that ignore such interference can yield…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-04 Xiao Liu , Feifang Hu , Jingfei Zhang