相关论文: The number of potential winners in Bradley-Terry m…

The Bradley-Terry model has previously been used in both Bayesian and frequentist interpretations to evaluate the strengths of sports teams based on win-loss game results. It has also been extended to handle additional possible results such…

We propose a general framework for statistical inference on the overall strengths of players in pairwise comparisons, allowing for potential shifts in the covariate distribution. These covariates capture important contextual information…

In a wide class of paired comparisons, especially in the sports games, in which all subjects are divided into several groups, the intragroup comparisons are dense and the intergroup comparisons are sparse. Typical examples include the NFL…

The Bradley-Terry model is widely used for pairwise comparison data analysis. In this paper, we analyze the asymptotic behavior of the maximum likelihood estimator of the Bradley-Terry model in its logistic parameterization, under a general…

We analyze the dynamics of competitions with a large number of players. In our model, n players compete against each other and the winner is decided based on the standings: in each competition, the mth ranked player wins. We solve for the…

The Bradley-Terry model assigns probabilities for the outcome of paired comparison experiments based on strength parameters associated with the objects being compared. We consider different proposed choices of prior parameter distributions…

Can one understand the statistics of wins and losses of baseball teams? Are their consecutive-game winning and losing streaks self-reinforcing or can they be described statistically? We apply the Bradley-Terry model, which incorporates the…

Australian Rules Football is a field invasion game where two teams attempt to score the highest points to win. Complex machine learning algorithms have been developed to predict match outcomes post-game, but their lack of interpretability…

There are $n$ independent Bernoulli random variables with parameters $p_i$ that are observed sequentially. Two players, A and B, act in turns starting with player A. Each player has the possibility on his turn, when $I_k=1$, to choose…

We provide an algorithm with constant running time that given a weighted tournament $T$, distinguishes with high probability of success between the cases that $T$ can be represented by a Bradley--Terry model, or cannot even be approximated…

The seminal Bradley-Terry model exhibits transitivity, i.e., the property that the probabilities of player A beating B and B beating C give the probability of A beating C, with these probabilities determined by a skill parameter for each…

Ranking problems based on pairwise comparisons, such as those arising in online gaming, often involve a large pool of items to order. In these situations, the gap in performance between any two items can be significant, and the smallest and…

Consider a two-player game repeated N times. Player 1 can choose between two styles (for interpretability, offensive and defensive), whereas Player 2 uses a single fixed style. Let X N\,:= \#wins -\#losses for Player 1 after N games, and…

Motivated by the home-field advantage in sports, we propose a generalized Bradley--Terry model that incorporates covariate information for paired comparisons. It has an $n$-dimensional merit parameter $\bs{\beta}$ and a fixed-dimensional…

Winners-take-all situations introduce an incentive for agents to diversify their behavior, since doing so will result in splitting an eventual price with fewer people. At the same time, when the payoff of a process depends on a parameter…

Paired comparison models, such as the Bradley-Terry (1952) model and its variants, are commonly used to measure competitor strength in games and sports. Extensions have been proposed to account for order effects (e.g., home-field advantage)…

We consider two-player normal form games where each player has the same finite strategy set. The payoffs of each player are assumed to be i.i.d. random variables with a continuous distribution. We show that, with high probability, the…

We study $n$-dimensional contests between two players with heterogeneous effort costs, where each dimension (battle) is modeled as a Tullock contest. Prize-allocation rules are identity-independent, budget-balanced, and weakly increasing in…

In the Bradley-Terry model for paired comparisons, and its extensions to include order effects and ties, the maximum likelihood estimates of probabilities of certain outcomes can be 0 or 1 under certain data configurations. This poses…

Multi-round competitions often double or triple the points awarded in the final round, calling it a bonus, to maximize spectators' excitement. In a two-player competition with $n$ rounds, we aim to derive the optimal bonus size to maximize…