相关论文: A space-time conditional intensity model for invas…
Understanding age-group dynamics of infectious diseases is a fundamental issue for both scientific study and policymaking. Age-structure epidemic models were developed in order to study and improve our understanding of these dynamics. By…
The study of infectious disease epidemiology for multi-type disease pathogens requires modelling techniques that account for the complex interactions existing between strains across geography and time. In this paper, we propose a novel…
We consider a space-time SI epidemic model with infection age-dependent infectivity and non-local infections constructed on a grid of the torus $\mathbb{T}^1 =(0, 1]^d$, where the individuals may migrate from node to another. The migration…
We present an approach to studying and predicting the spatio-temporal progression of infectious diseases. We treat the problem by adopting a partial differential equation (PDE) version of the Susceptible, Infected, Recovered, Deceased…
The role of direct cell-to-cell spread in viral infections - where virions spread between host and susceptible cells without needing to be secreted into the extracellular environment - has come to be understood as essential to the dynamics…
A compartment epidemic model for infectious disease spreading is investigated, where movement of individuals is governed by spatial diffusion. The model includes infection age of the infected individuals and assumes a logistic growth of the…
There is a constant need for many healthcare programs to timely address problems with infection prevention and control (IP&C). For example, pathogens can be transmitted among patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) in both the inpatient and…
The susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model is analyzed through a degree-based mean-field approach. In this work, a mitigation factor is introduced in the probability of finding an infected individual following an edge. This…
Let S,I and R be susceptible, infected and recovered populations in a city affected by an epidemic. The SIR model of Lee, Liu, Tembine, Li and Osher, \emph{SIAM J. Appl. Math.},~81, 190--207, 2021 of the spatiotemoral spread of epidemics is…
The current survey paper concerns stochastic mathematical models for the spread of infectious diseases. It starts with the simplest setting of a homogeneous population in which a transmittable disease spreads during a short outbreak.…
Infectious diseases are caused by pathogenic microorganisms and can spread through different ways. Mathematical models and computational simulation have been used extensively to investigate the transmission and spread of infectious…
This article introduces epidemia, an R package for Bayesian, regression-oriented modeling of infectious diseases. The implemented models define a likelihood for all observed data while also explicitly modeling transmission dynamics: an…
Motivated by foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak data from Turkey, we develop a model to estimate disease risk based on a space-time record of outbreaks. The spread of infectious disease in geographical units depends on both transmission…
Compartmental models like the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR)\cite{Kermack1927} and its extensions such as the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIRS)\cite{Ottar2020,Ignazio2021,Grimm2021,Paoluzzi2021} are commonly used to model…
This paper introduces a way of modeling the epidemic transmission rate using a stochastic process of the form $(\beta_t = \varphi(t)P_t : t \ge 0)$, where the positive deterministic function $\varphi(t)$ models the impact of a public health…
In this paper, we propose a Susceptible-Infected-Removal (SIR) model with time fused coefficients. In particular, our proposed model discovers the underlying time homogeneity pattern for the SIR model's transmission rate and removal rate…
This study presents a neural network-enhanced approach to modeling disease spread dynamics over time and space. Neural networks are used to estimate time-varying parameters, with two calibration methods explored: Approximate Bayesian…
We propose a mathematical model to investigate the effects of information-dependent vaccination behavior on meningitis transmission. The information is represented by means of information index as early proposed in (d'Onofrio et al., Theor.…
We propose a generalization of the adaptive N-Intertwined Mean-Field Approximation (aNIMFA) model studied in Achterberg and Sensi (2023) to a heterogeneous network of communities. In particular, the multigroup aNIMFA model describes the…
A hybrid network--deterministic model for simulation of multiresistant pathogen spread in a healthcare system is presented. The model accounts for two paths of pathogen transmission between the healthcare facilities: inter-hospital patient…