相关论文: Bayesian Cross Validation and WAIC for Predictive …

In Bayesian inverse problems, it is common to consider several hyperparameters that define the prior and the noise model that must be estimated from the data. In particular, we are interested in linear inverse problems with additive…

In machine learning, statistics, econometrics and statistical physics, cross-validation (CV) is used asa standard approach in quantifying the generalisation performance of a statistical model. A directapplication of CV in time-series leads…

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods perform inference on model-specific parameters of mechanistically motivated parametric statistical models when evaluating likelihoods is difficult. Central to the success of ABC methods is…

In this paper, we consider high-dimensional Gaussian graphical models where the true underlying graph is decomposable. A hierarchical $G$-Wishart prior is proposed to conduct a Bayesian inference for the precision matrix and its graph…

Continual Generalized Category Discovery (C-GCD) faces a critical challenge: incrementally learning new classes from unlabeled data streams while preserving knowledge of old classes. Existing methods struggle with catastrophic forgetting,…

The Misspecification-Resistant Information Criterion (MRIC) proposed in [H.-L. Hsu, C.-K. Ing, H. Tong: On model selection from a finite family of possibly misspecified time series models. The Annals of Statistics. 47 (2), 1061--1087…

This paper presents the first general (supervised) statistical learning framework for point processes in general spaces. Our approach is based on the combination of two new concepts, which we define in the paper: i) bivariate innovations,…

Despite the promise of Convolutional neural network (CNN) based classification models for histopathological images, it is infeasible to quantify its uncertainties. Moreover, CNNs may suffer from overfitting when the data is biased. We show…

We study the problem of designing mechanisms when agents' valuation functions are drawn from unknown and correlated prior distributions. In particular, we are given a prior distribution $\D$, and we are interested in designing a (truthful)…

We consider maximin and Bayesian $D$-optimal designs for nonlinear regression models. The maximin criterion requires the specification of a region for the nonlinear parameters in the model, while the Bayesian optimality criterion assumes…

The classic Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) is not invariant to reparameterization and can have a negative and unstable effective number of parameters. The reason for the effective number of parameters being negative is actually that…

Cross-validation is the de facto standard for predictive model evaluation and selection. In proper use, it provides an unbiased estimate of a model's predictive performance. However, data sets often undergo various forms of data-dependent…

We develop a new method for frequentist multiple testing with Bayesian prior information. Our procedure finds a new set of optimal p-value weights called the Bayes weights. Prior information is relevant to many multiple testing problems.…

In Bayesian nonparametric inference, random discrete probability measures are commonly used as priors within hierarchical mixture models for density estimation and for inference on the clustering of the data. Recently, it has been shown…

Given a random sample from a multivariate population, estimating the number of large eigenvalues of the population covariance matrix is an important problem in Statistics with wide applications in many areas. In the context of Principal…

We propose information criteria that measure the prediction risk of a predictive density based on the Bayesian marginal likelihood from a frequentist point of view. We derive criteria for selecting variables in linear regression models,…

Design of experiments has traditionally relied on the frequentist hypothesis testing framework where the optimal size of the experiment is specified as the minimum sample size that guarantees a required level of power. Sample size…

In a Gaussian graphical model, the conditional independence between two variables are characterized by the corresponding zero entries in the inverse covariance matrix. Maximum likelihood method using the smoothly clipped absolute deviation…

Cross-validation (CV) is widely used for tuning a model with respect to user-selected parameters and for selecting a "best" model. For example, the method of $k$-nearest neighbors requires the user to choose $k$, the number of neighbors,…

In data-driven optimization, the sample performance of the obtained decision typically incurs an optimistic bias against the true performance, a phenomenon commonly known as the Optimizer's Curse and intimately related to overfitting in…