相关论文: Bayesian Cross Validation and WAIC for Predictive …

The Bayesian formulation of inverse problems is attractive for three primary reasons: it provides a clear modelling framework; means for uncertainty quantification; and it allows for principled learning of hyperparameters. The posterior…

Using instruments comprising ordered responses to items are ubiquitous for studying many constructs of interest. However, using such an item response format may lead to items with response categories infrequently endorsed or unendorsed…

We investigate high-dimensional nonconvex penalized regression, where the number of covariates may grow at an exponential rate. Although recent asymptotic theory established that there exists a local minimum possessing the oracle property…

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a popular method for approximate inference in generative models with intractable but easy-to-sample likelihood. It constructs an approximate posterior distribution by finding parameters for which…

Cross-validation is a popular non-parametric method for evaluating the accuracy of a predictive rule. The usefulness of cross-validation depends on the task we want to employ it for. In this note, I discuss a simple non-parametric setting,…

Due to the growing number of MRI data, automated quality control (QC) has become essential, especially for larger scale analysis. Several attempts have been made in order to develop reliable and scalable QC pipelines. However, the…

The growing use of model-selection principles in ecology for statistical inference is underpinned by information criteria (IC) and cross-validation (CV) techniques. Although IC techniques, such as Akaike's Information Criterion, have been…

In this paper we give a short theoretical description of the general predictive adaptive arithmetic coding technique. The links between this technique and the works of J. Rissanen in the 80's, in particular the BIC information criterion…

In this paper, I develop a formula for estimating Bayes factors directly from minimal summary statistics produced in repeated measures analysis of variance designs. The formula, which requires knowing only the $F$-statistic, the number of…

Evaluating the predictive performance of species distribution models (SDMs) under realistic deployment scenarios requires careful handling of spatial and temporal dependencies in the data. Cross-validation (CV) is the standard approach for…

Bayesian model averaging is a practical method for dealing with uncertainty due to model specification. Use of this technique requires the estimation of model probability weights. In this work, we revisit the derivation of estimators for…

We consider the parametric learning problem, where the objective of the learner is determined by a parametric loss function. Employing empirical risk minimization with possibly regularization, the inferred parameter vector will be biased…

A key step in the Bayesian workflow for model building is the graphical assessment of model predictions, whether these are drawn from the prior or posterior predictive distribution. The goal of these assessments is to identify whether the…

Performing optimal Bayesian design for discriminating between competing models is computationally intensive as it involves estimating posterior model probabilities for thousands of simulated datasets. This issue is compounded further when…

The prior independent framework for algorithm design considers how well an algorithm that does not know the distribution of its inputs approximates the expected performance of the optimal algorithm for this distribution. This paper gives a…

It is well understood that Bayesian decision theory and average case analysis are essentially identical. However, if one is interested in performing uncertainty quantification for a numerical task, it can be argued that standard approaches…

Bayesian optimisation has gained great popularity as a tool for optimising the parameters of machine learning algorithms and models. Somewhat ironically, setting up the hyper-parameters of Bayesian optimisation methods is notoriously hard.…

Manifold regularization, such as laplacian regularized least squares (LapRLS) and laplacian support vector machine (LapSVM), has been widely used in semi-supervised learning, and its performance greatly depends on the choice of some…

As an alternative to variable selection or shrinkage in high dimensional regression, we propose to randomly compress the predictors prior to analysis. This dramatically reduces storage and computational bottlenecks, performing well when the…

The problem of forecasting conditional probabilities of the next event given the past is considered in a general probabilistic setting. Given an arbitrary (large, uncountable) set C of predictors, we would like to construct a single…