相关论文: Estimation of Several Political Action Effects of …
The effectiveness of fiscal policy to influence vehicle purchases for emissions reductions in private passenger road transport depends on its ability to incentivise consumers to make choices oriented towards lower emissions vehicles.…
Financial market forecasting is one of the most attractive practical applications of sentiment analysis. In this paper, we investigate the potential of using sentiment \emph{attitudes} (positive vs negative) and also sentiment…
This paper analyzes the informational efficiency of oil market during the last three decades, and examines changes in informational efficiency with major geopolitical events, such as terrorist attacks, financial crisis and other important…
Macroeconomic fluctuations and the narratives that shape them form a mutually reinforcing cycle: public discourse can spur behavioural changes leading to economic shifts, which then result in changes in the stories that propagate. We show…
We find striking correlations between the presidential election outcome probability and major financial indicators, including USD currency pairs, bond prices, stock index futures, and a market volatility measure. The correlations are…
In two previous papers the author developed a second-order price adjustment (t\^atonnement) process. This paper extends the approach to include both quantity and price adjustments. We demonstrate three results: a analogue to physical…
Protest activity, a constitutionally protected right in the United States under the First Amendment, serves as a key tool for individuals with limited individual influence to unite collectively and amplify their impact. Despite its legal…
Climate policy has become increasingly politicized in many countries including the US, with some political parties unwilling to pursue strong measures. Therefore, to be successful in mitigation, climate policies must be politically…
In this study, we introduce a physical model inspired by statistical physics for predicting price volatility and expected returns by leveraging Level 3 order book data. By drawing parallels between orders in the limit order book and…
Climate (change) affects the prices of goods and services in different countries or regions differently. Simply relying on aggregate measures or summary statistics, such as the impact of average country temperature changes on HICP headline…
We study causality between bivariate curve time series using the Granger causality generalized measures of correlation. With this measure, we can investigate which curve time series Granger-causes the other; in turn, it helps determine the…
Large variations in stock prices happen with sufficient frequency to raise doubts about existing models, which all fail to account for non-Gaussian statistics. We construct simple models of a stock market, and argue that the large…
There certainly is little or no doubt that politicians, sometimes consciously and sometimes not, exert a significant impact on stock markets. The evolving volatility over the Republican Donald Trump's surprise victory in the US presidential…
Energy storage and demand-side response will play an increasingly important role in the future electricity system. We extend previous results on a single energy storage unit to the management of two energy storage units cooperating for the…
This paper develops a strategic model of trade between two regions in which, depending on the relation among output, financial resources and transportation costs, the adjustment of prices towards an equilibrium is studied. We derive…
It is argued that the order of the analytic expressions for the calculation of the primordial perturbations from inflation exerts a strong influence upon the results of the analysis of observables dynamics based on these expressions and,…
A deterministic trading strategy can be regarded as a signal processing element that uses external information and past prices as inputs and incorporates them into future prices. This paper uses a market maker based method of price…
The price of electricity is far more volatile than that of other commodities normally noted for extreme volatility. Demand and supply are balanced on a knife-edge because electric power cannot be economically stored, end user demand is…
This paper quantifies the international spillovers of US interest rates by explicitly controlling for the "Fed Information Effect". I use multiple identification strategies that identify two components of monetary policy surprises around…
The paper discusses various practical consequences of treating economics and finance as an inherently dynamic and chaotic system. On the theoretical side this looks at the general applicability of the market-making pricing approach to…