相关论文: Prediction Measures in Beta Regression Models

Decisions based partly or solely on predictions from probabilistic models may be sensitive to model misspecification. Statisticians are taught from an early stage that "all models are wrong", but little formal guidance exists on how to…

Predictive models are often introduced to decision-making tasks under the rationale that they improve performance over an existing decision-making policy. However, it is challenging to compare predictive performance against an existing…

We study model evaluation and model selection from the perspective of generalization ability (GA): the ability of a model to predict outcomes in new samples from the same population. We believe that GA is one way formally to address…

In the field of decision trees, most previous studies have difficulty ensuring the statistical optimality of a prediction of new data and suffer from overfitting because trees are usually used only to represent prediction functions to be…

Estimation in GARMA models has traditionally been carried out under the frequentist approach. To date, Bayesian approaches for such estimation have been relatively limited. In the context of GARMA models for count time series, Bayesian…

Random effects meta-analysis is a widely applied methodology to synthetize research findings of studies in a specific scientific question. Besides estimating the mean effect, an important aim of the meta-analysis is to summarize the…

The application of machine learning to physics problems is widely found in the scientific literature. Both regression and classification problems are addressed by a large array of techniques that involve learning algorithms. Unfortunately,…

Many real world data mining applications involve obtaining predictive models using data sets with strongly imbalanced distributions of the target variable. Frequently, the least common values of this target variable are associated with…

Measuring the accuracy of cross-sectional predictions is a subjective problem. Generally, this problem is avoided. In contrast, this paper confronts subjectivity up front by eliciting an impartial decision-maker's preferences. These…

Random-effects models are frequently used to synthesise information from different studies in meta-analysis. While likelihood-based inference is attractive both in terms of limiting properties and of implementation, its application in…

In Bayesian hypothesis testing and model selection, prior distributions must be chosen carefully. For example, setting arbitrarily large prior scales for location parameters, which is common practice in estimation problems, can lead to…

In order to improve forecasts, a decisionmaker often combines probabilities given by various sources, such as human experts and machine learning classifiers. When few training data are available, aggregation can be improved by incorporating…

A Monte-Carlo algorithm for discrete statistical models that combines the full power of the Belief Propagation algorithm with the advantages of a detailed-balanced heat bath approach is presented. A sub-tree inside the factor graph is first…

This paper describes measures for evaluating the three determinants of how well a probabilistic classifier performs on a given test set. These determinants are the appropriateness, for the test set, of the results of (1) feature selection,…

Data on rates, percentages or proportions arise frequently in many different applied disciplines like medical biology, health care, psychology and several others. In this paper, we develop a robust inference procedure for the beta…

We consider the problem of goodness-of-fit testing for a model that has at least one unknown parameter that cannot be eliminated by transformation. Examples of such problems can be as simple as testing whether a sample consists of…

We propose a framework for analyzing the sensitivity of counterfactuals to parametric assumptions about the distribution of latent variables in structural models. In particular, we derive bounds on counterfactuals as the distribution of…

This paper considers the problem of forecasting a collection of short time series using cross sectional information in panel data. We construct point predictors using Tweedie's formula for the posterior mean of heterogeneous coefficients…

The beta model is the most important distribution for fitting data with the unit interval. However, the beta distribution is not suitable to model bimodal unit interval data. In this paper, we propose a bimodal beta distribution constructed…

The prediction interval has been increasingly used in meta-analyses as a useful measure for assessing the magnitude of treatment effect and between-studies heterogeneity. In calculations of the prediction interval, although the…