相关论文: Prediction Measures in Beta Regression Models

Counterfactual prediction methods are required when a model will be deployed in a setting where treatment policies differ from the setting where the model was developed, or when a model provides predictions under hypothetical interventions…

In machine learning, the selection of a promising model from a potentially large number of competing models and the assessment of its generalization performance are critical tasks that need careful consideration. Typically, model selection…

Prediction with the possibility of abstention (or selective prediction) is an important problem for error-critical machine learning applications. While well-studied in the classification setup, selective approaches to regression are much…

Astronomers often deal with data where the covariates and the dependent variable are measured with heteroscedastic non-Gaussian error. For instance, while TESS and Kepler datasets provide a wealth of information, addressing the challenges…

Measurement involves the determination of quantitative estimates of physical quantities from experiment, along with estimates of their associated uncertainties. Herewith an experimental system model is the key to extracting information from…

This paper proposes the beta binomial autoregressive moving average model (BBARMA) for modeling quantized amplitude data and bounded count data. The BBARMA model estimates the conditional mean of a beta binomial distributed variable…

The paper considers model selection in regression under the additional structural constraints on admissible models where the number of potential predictors might be even larger than the available sample size. We develop a Bayesian formalism…

The main purpose of this paper is to introduce a new class of regression models for bounded continuous data, commonly encountered in applied research. The models, named the power logit regression models, assume that the response variable…

Background: Overweight and obesity are an increasing phenomenon worldwide. Predicting future overweight or obesity early in the childhood reliably could enable a successful intervention by experts. While a lot of research has been done…

The goal of regression analysis is to predict the value of a numeric outcome variable y given a vector of joint values of other (predictor) variables x. Usually a particular x-vector does not specify a repeatable value for y, but rather a…

Probability forecasting is common in the geosciences, the finance sector, and elsewhere. It is sometimes the case that one has multiple probability-forecasts for the same target. How is the information in these multiple forecast systems…

We deal with Bayesian inference for Beta autoregressive processes. We restrict our attention to the class of conditionally linear processes. These processes are particularly suitable for forecasting purposes, but are difficult to estimate…

Regression models that ignore measurement error in predictors may produce highly biased estimates leading to erroneous inferences. It is well known that it is extremely difficult to take measurement error into account in Gaussian…

We propose a new approach to mixed-frequency regressions in a high-dimensional environment that resorts to Group Lasso penalization and Bayesian techniques for estimation and inference. In particular, to improve the prediction properties of…

Dynamical systems are frequently used to model biological systems. When these models are fit to data it is necessary to ascertain the uncertainty in the model fit. Here we present prediction deviation, a new metric of uncertainty that…

This article analyzes the problem of estimating the time until an event occurs, also known as survival modeling. We observe through substantial experiments on large real-world datasets and use-cases that populations are largely…

The large majority of inferences drawn in empirical political research follow from model-based associations (e.g. regression). Here, we articulate the benefits of predictive modeling as a complement to this approach. Predictive models aim…

When making predictions about ecosystems, we often have available a number of different ecosystem models that attempt to represent their dynamics in a detailed mechanistic way. Each of these can be used as simulators of large-scale…

Evaluating predictive models is a crucial task in predictive analytics. This process is especially challenging with time series data where the observations show temporal dependencies. Several studies have analysed how different performance…

Beta regression models are employed to model continuous response variables in the unit interval, like rates, percentages, or proportions. Their applications rise in several areas, such as medicine, environment research, finance, and natural…