相关论文: Prediction Measures in Beta Regression Models

Predictive process monitoring focuses on forecasting future states of ongoing process executions, such as predicting the outcome of a particular case. In recent years, the application of machine learning models in this domain has garnered…

Should prediction models always deliver a prediction? In the pursuit of maximum predictive performance, critical considerations of reliability and fairness are often overshadowed, particularly when it comes to the role of uncertainty.…

The study focuses on improving the ex ante prediction accuracy assessment in the case of forecasting various house price dispersion measures in the USA. It addresses a critical gap in real estate market forecasting by proposing a novel…

The paper introduces a new regression model designed for situations where both the response and covariates are non-stationary extremes. This method is specifically designed for situations where both the response variable and covariates are…

We propose to interpret distribution model risk as sensitivity of expected loss to changes in the risk factor distribution, and to measure the distribution model risk of a portfolio by the maximum expected loss over a set of plausible…

Regression models are essential for a wide range of real-world applications. However, in practice, target values are not always precisely known; instead, they may be represented as intervals of acceptable values. This challenge has led to…

To tackle ever-increasing city traffic congestion problems, researchers have proposed deep learning models to aid decision-makers in the traffic control domain. Although the proposed models have been remarkably improved in recent years,…

We propose a Machine Learning approach for optimal macroeconomic density forecasting in a high-dimensional setting where the underlying model exhibits a known group structure. Our approach is general enough to encompass specific forecasting…

We derive an analytical approximation for making quantitative predictions for ecological communities as a function of the mean intensity of the inter-specific competition and the species richness. This method, with only a fraction of the…

We introduce a mixture-model of beta distributions to identify significant correlations among $P$ predictors when $P$ is large. The method relies on theorems in convex geometry, which we use to show how to control the error rate of edge…

Unlabeled data are increasingly prevalent in contemporary economic studies, yet their effective use for improving prediction remains challenging because the outcomes are often costly or even infeasible to observe. Machine learning methods…

A statistical test based on the geometric mean is proposed to determine if a predictive model should be rejected or not, when the quantity of interest is a strictly positive continuous random variable. A simulation study is performed to…

Statistical techniques used in air pollution modelling usually lack the possibility to understand which predictors affect air pollution in which functional form; and are not able to regress on exceedances over certain thresholds imposed by…

Statistical inference in high-dimensional settings is challenging when standard unregularized methods are employed. In this work, we focus on the case of multiple correlated proportions for which we develop a Bayesian inference framework.…

The reproducibility crisis has led to an increasing number of replication studies being conducted. Sample sizes for replication studies are often calculated using conditional power based on the effect estimate from the original study.…

Deployed supervised machine learning models make predictions that interact with and influence the world. This phenomenon is called performative prediction by Perdomo et al. (ICML 2020). It is an ongoing challenge to understand the influence…

Load forecasts have become an integral part of energy security. Due to the various influencing factors that can be considered in such a forecast, there is also a wide range of models that attempt to integrate these parameters into a system…

In two previous papers, I introduced SuperSpreader (SS) epidemic models, offered some theoretical discussion of prevention issues, and fitted some models to data derived from published accounts of the ongoing MERS epidemic (concluding that…

Predictive models are being increasingly used to support consequential decision making at the individual level in contexts such as pretrial bail and loan approval. As a result, there is increasing social and legal pressure to provide…

High concentration episodes for NO$_2$ are increasingly dealt with by authorities through traffic restrictions which are activated when air quality deteriorates beyond certain thresholds. Foreseeing the probability that pollutant…