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The large majority of inferences drawn in empirical political research follow from model-based associations (e.g. regression). Here, we articulate the benefits of predictive modeling as a complement to this approach. Predictive models aim…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-12-20 Skyler J. Cranmer , Bruce A. Desmarais

We predict the popularity of short messages called tweets created in the micro-blogging site known as Twitter. We measure the popularity of a tweet by the time-series path of its retweets, which is when people forward the tweet to others.…

社会与信息网络 · 计算机科学 2014-11-25 Tauhid Zaman , Emily B. Fox , Eric T. Bradlow

Because of its willingness to share data with academia and industry, Twitter has been the primary social media platform for scientific research as well as for consulting businesses and governments in the last decade. In recent years, a…

社会与信息网络 · 计算机科学 2023-04-12 Juergen Pfeffer , Angelina Mooseder , Jana Lasser , Luca Hammer , Oliver Stritzel , David Garcia

Popularity is a critical success factor for a politician and her/his party to win in elections and implement their plans. Finding the reasons behind the popularity can provide a stable political movement. This research attempts to measure…

应用统计 · 统计学 2018-12-11 Amir Karami , Aida Elkouri

Twitter, a microblogging service, is todays most popular platform for communication in the form of short text messages, called Tweets. Users use Twitter to publish their content either for expressing concerns on information news or views on…

社会与信息网络 · 计算机科学 2017-11-29 Dhanasekar Sundararaman , Priya Arora , Vishwanath Seshagiri

Twitter is among the most used online platforms for the political communications, due to the concision of its messages (which is particularly suitable for political slogans) and the quick diffusion of messages. Especially when the argument…

社会与信息网络 · 计算机科学 2021-06-08 Giacomo Aletti , Irene Crimaldi , Fabio Saracco

Accurate prediction of FIFA World Cup match outcomes holds significant value for analysts, coaches, bettors, and fans. This paper presents a machine learning framework specifically designed to forecast match winners in FIFA World Cup. By…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-01-07 Ali Al-Bustami , Zaid Ghazal

Twitter provides an open and rich source of data for studying human behaviour at scale and is widely used in social and network sciences. However, a major criticism of Twitter data is that demographic information is largely absent.…

社会与信息网络 · 计算机科学 2017-02-27 Benjamin Paul Chamberlain , Clive Humby , Marc Peter Deisenroth

Reputation is generally defined as the opinion of a group on an aspect of a thing. This paper presents a reputation model that follows a probabilistic modelling of opinions based on three main concepts: (1) the value of an opinion decays…

多智能体系统 · 计算机科学 2015-04-01 Nardine Osman , Alessandro Provetti , Valerio Riggi , Carles Sierra

When evaluating the cause of one's popularity on Twitter, one thing is considered to be the main driver: Many tweets. There is debate about the kind of tweet one should publish, but little beyond tweets. Of particular interest is the…

信息检索 · 计算机科学 2017-05-10 Juergen Mueller , Gerd Stumme

The increasing popularity of the social networking service, Twitter, has made it more involved in day-to-day communications, strengthening social relationships and information dissemination. Conversations on Twitter are now being explored…

社会与信息网络 · 计算机科学 2017-01-16 Oluwaseun Ajao , Jun Hong , Weiru Liu

The need for a comprehensive study to explore various aspects of online social media has been instigated by many researchers. This paper gives an insight into the social platform, Twitter. In this present work, we have illustrated stepwise…

社会与信息网络 · 计算机科学 2021-05-24 Shahab Saquib Sohail , Mohammad Muzammil Khan , M. Afshar Alam

Nowadays social media platforms such as Twitter provide a great opportunity to understand public opinion of climate change compared to traditional survey methods. In this paper, we constructed a massive climate change Twitter dataset and…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2021-12-01 Zhongkai Shangguan , Zihe Zheng , Lei Lin

This paper presents a financial analysis over Twitter sentiment analytics extracted from listed retail brands. We investigate whether there is statistically-significant information between the Twitter sentiment and volume, and stock returns…

计算机与社会 · 计算机科学 2017-04-03 Thársis Tuani Pinto Souza , Olga Kolchyna , Philip C. Treleaven , Tomaso Aste

Analysing sentiment of tweets is important as it helps to determine the users' opinion. Knowing people's opinion is crucial for several purposes starting from gathering knowledge about customer base, e-governance, campaigning and many more.…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2016-11-30 Lahari Poddar , Kishaloy Halder , Xianyan Jia

We present a systematic approach to the prediction of soccer matches. First, we show that the information about chances for goals is by far more informative than about the actual results. Second, we present a multivariate regression…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2012-07-20 Andreas Heuer , Oliver Rubner

Accurately predicting the outcome of sporting events has been a goal for many groups who seek to maximize profit. What makes this challenging is that the outcome of an event can be influenced by many factors that dynamically change across…

应用统计 · 统计学 2017-10-23 Erik J. Schlicht

In the context of altmetrics, tweets have been discussed as potential indicators of immediate and broader societal impact of scientific documents. However, it is not yet clear to what extent Twitter captures actual research impact. A small…

数字图书馆 · 计算机科学 2015-07-09 Natalie Friedrich , Timothy D. Bowman , Wolfgang G. Stock , Stefanie Haustein

Social networks play a fundamental role in propagation of information and news. Characterizing the content of the messages becomes vital for different tasks, like breaking news detection, personalized message recommendation, fake users…

信息检索 · 计算机科学 2022-01-04 Federico Albanese , Esteban Feuerstein

This work presents a supervised method for generating a classifier model of the stances held by Chinese-speaking politicians and other Twitter users. Many previous works of political tweets prediction exist on English tweets, but to the…

计算机与社会 · 计算机科学 2021-10-13 Fenglei Gu , Duoji Jiang