相关论文: Estimation of Causal Invertible VARMA Models

The vector autoregression (VAR) has been widely used in system identification, econometrics, natural science, and many other areas. However, when the state dimension becomes large the parameter dimension explodes. So rank reduced modelling…

Many economic variables feature changes in their conditional mean and volatility, and Time Varying Vector Autoregressive Models are often used to handle such complexity in the data. Unfortunately, when the number of series grows, they…

We study the problem of automatically discovering Granger causal relations from observational multivariate time-series data.Vector autoregressive (VAR) models have been time-tested for this problem, including Bayesian variants and more…

This report presents an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for estimation of the maximum-likelihood parameter values of constrained multivariate autoregressive Gaussian state-space (MARSS) models. The MARSS model can be written:…

We discuss the issue of estimating large-scale vector autoregressive (VAR) models with stochastic volatility in real-time situations where data are sampled at different frequencies. In the case of a large VAR with stochastic volatility, the…

We consider the problem of identifying parameters of a particular class of Markov chains, called Bernoulli Autoregressive (BAR) processes. The structure of any BAR model is encoded by a directed graph. Incoming edges to a node in the graph…

Modeling the time-varying covariance structures of high-dimensional variables is critical across diverse scientific and industrial applications; however, existing approaches exhibit notable limitations in either modeling flexibility or…

We propose a dynamic multiplicative factor model for process data, which arise from complex problem-solving items, an emerging testing mode in large-scale educational assessment. The proposed model can be viewed as an extension of the…

A new portmanteau diagnostic test for vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) models that is based on the determinant of the standardized multivariate residual autocorrelations is derived. The new test statistic may be considered an…

Robot data collected in complex real-world scenarios are often biased due to safety concerns, human preferences, and mission or platform constraints. Consequently, robot learning from such observational data poses great challenges for…

Linear causal models are important tools for modeling causal dependencies and yet in practice, only a subset of the variables can be observed. In this paper, we examine the parameter identifiability of these models by investigating whether…

We study the problem of modelling high-dimensional, heavy-tailed time series data via a factor-adjusted vector autoregressive (VAR) model, which simultaneously accounts for pervasive co-movements of the variables by a handful of factors, as…

Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) is a central tail-risk measure in stochastic structural mechanics, yet its accurate evaluation under high-dimensional, spatially correlated material uncertainty remains computationally prohibitive for…

This paper analyzes identifiability properties of structural vector autoregressive moving average (SVARMA) models driven by independent and non-Gaussian shocks. It is well known, that SVARMA models driven by Gaussian errors are not…

The reduced-rank vector autoregressive (VAR) model can be interpreted as a supervised factor model, where two factor modelings are simultaneously applied to response and predictor spaces. This article introduces a new model, called vector…

Dynamical systems comprising of multiple components that can be partitioned into distinct blocks originate in many scientific areas. A pertinent example is the interactions between financial assets and selected macroeconomic indicators,…

This paper introduces a novel approach, the bivariate generalized autoregressive (BGAR) model, for modeling and forecasting bivariate time series data. The BGAR model generalizes the bivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) models by allowing…

This paper presents a general theoretical framework of penalized quasi-maximum likelihood (PQML) estimation in stationary multiple time series models when the number of parameters possibly diverges. We show the oracle property of the PQML…

In this paper, two novel algorithms to estimate a Gaussian Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model from 1-bit measurements are introduced. They are based on the Yule-Walker scheme modified to account for quantisation. The scalar case has been…

AIMS. The maximum-likelihood method is the standard approach to obtain model fits to observational data and the corresponding confidence regions. We investigate possible sources of bias in the log-likelihood function and its subsequent…