相关论文: Estimation of Causal Invertible VARMA Models

In this paper, we examine continuous-time autoregressive moving-average (CARMA) processes on Banach spaces driven by L\'evy subordinators. We show their existence and cone-invariance, investigate their first and second order moment…

Many inverse problems include nuisance parameters which, while not of direct interest, are required to recover primary parameters. Structure present in these problems allows efficient optimization strategies - a well known example is…

Dynamic factor models are often estimated by point-estimation methods, disregarding parameter uncertainty. We propose a method accounting for parameter uncertainty by means of posterior approximation, using variational inference. Our…

We develop estimation for potentially high-dimensional additive structural equation models. A key component of our approach is to decouple order search among the variables from feature or edge selection in a directed acyclic graph encoding…

We consider maximum likelihood estimation for both causal and noncausal autoregressive time series processes with non-Gaussian $\alpha$-stable noise. A nondegenerate limiting distribution is given for maximum likelihood estimators of the…

Variable selection naturally arises as a useful subject when faced with data with massive predictor space. In addition to the massive dimensionality, the data may be characterized by intra-subject correlation, and cure fraction, which are…

In this paper, we propose a probabilistic reduced-dimensional vector autoregressive (PredVAR) model with oblique projections. This model partitions the measurement space into a dynamic subspace and a static subspace that do not need to be…

Multivariate dynamic time series models are widely encountered in practical studies, e.g., modelling policy transmission mechanism and measuring connectedness between economic agents. To better capture the dynamics, this paper proposes a…

Linear time series modelling is dominated by the use of purely autoregressive models even though incorporating moving average components can greatly improve parsimony. We present a convex formulation for vector-ARMA system identification…

The choice of the parameter value for regularized inverse problems is critical to the results and remains a topic of interest. This article explores a criterion for selecting a good parameter value by maximizing the probability of the data,…

We investigate the estimation of parameters in the random coefficient autoregressive model. We consider a nonstationary RCA process and show that the innovation variance parameter cannot be estimated by the quasi-maximum likelihood method.…

As evidenced by various recent and significant papers within the frequentist literature, along with numerous applications in macroeconomics, genomics, and neuroscience, there continues to be substantial interest to understand the…

Multivariate Bernoulli autoregressive (BAR) processes model time series of events in which the likelihood of current events is determined by the times and locations of past events. These processes can be used to model nonlinear dynamical…

Using observation data to estimate unknown parameters in computational models is broadly important. This task is often challenging because solutions are non-unique due to the complexity of the model and limited observation data. However,…

The aim of this paper is to develop estimation and inference methods for the drift parameters of multivariate L\'evy-driven continuous-time autoregressive processes of order $p\in\mathbb{N}$. Starting from a continuous-time observation of…

This paper develops a method for estimating parameters of a vector autoregression (VAR) observed in white noise. The estimation method assumes the noise variance matrix is known and does not require any iterative process. This study…

We revisit macroeconomic time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs), whose persistent coefficients may adapt too slowly to large, abrupt shifts such as those during major crises. We explore the performance of an…

In this paper, we propose a novel variable selection approach in the framework of sparse high-dimensional GLARMA models. It consists in combining the estimation of the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) coefficients of these models with…

Conjugate priors allow for fast inference in large dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models but, at the same time, introduce the restriction that each equation features the same set of explanatory variables. This paper proposes a…

For a general class of dynamic and stochastic structural models, we show that (i) non-linearity in economic dynamics is a necessary and sufficient condition for time-varying parameters (TVPs) in the reduced-form VARMA process followed by…