相关论文: Estimation of Causal Invertible VARMA Models

In this paper, a systematic approach is developed to embed the dynamical description of a nonlinear system into a linear parameter-varying (LPV) system representation. Initially, the nonlinear functions in the model representation are…

Inference for models with recursively defined likelihoods is computationally demanding, limiting scalability to large datasets. We propose a stabilised weighted subsampling methodology for accelerated inference based on an unbiased…

In this paper we test for Granger causality in high-dimensional vector autoregressive models (VARs) to disentangle and interpret the complex causal chains linking radiative forcings and global temperatures. By allowing for high…

In this paper we present a robust estimator for the parameters of a continuous-time ARMA(p,q) (CARMA(p,q)) process sampled equidistantly which is not necessarily Gaussian. Therefore, an indirect estimation procedure is used. It is an…

High-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models have numerous applications in fields such as econometrics, biology, climatology, among others. While prior research has mainly focused on linear VAR models, these approaches can be…

Assuming stationarity is unrealistic in many time series applications. A more realistic alternative is to allow for piecewise stationarity, where the model is allowed to change at given time points. In this article, the problem of detecting…

In this paper we show that stationary and non-stationary multivariate continuous-time ARMA (MCARMA) processes have the representation as a sum of multivariate complex-valued Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes under some mild assumptions. The…

We make an observation that facilitates exact likelihood-based inference for the parameters of the popular ARFIMA model without requiring stationarity by allowing the upper bound $\bar{d}$ for the memory parameter $d$ to exceed $0.5$:…

Time-varying parameter VARs with stochastic volatility are routinely used for structural analysis and forecasting in settings involving a few endogenous variables. Applying these models to high-dimensional datasets has proved to be…

Granger causality, a popular method for determining causal influence between stochastic processes, is most commonly estimated via linear autoregressive modeling. However, this approach has a serious drawback: if the process being modeled…

This paper studies methods for testing and estimating change-points in the covariance structure of a high-dimensional linear time series. The assumed framework allows for a large class of multivariate linear processes (including vector…

Variable selection in cluster analysis is important yet challenging. It can be achieved by regularization methods, which realize a trade-off between the clustering accuracy and the number of selected variables by using a lasso-type penalty.…

We consider a class of systems with time-varying parameters, which are written as linear regressions with bounded disturbances. The task is to estimate such parameters under the condition that the regressor is finitely exciting (FE).…

In contrast to the fixed parameter analysis (FPA), in the variable parameter analysis (VPA) the value of the target problem parameter is not fixed, it rather depends on the structure of a given problem instance and tends to have a favorable…

We consider Bayesian tensor vector autoregressions (TVARs) in which the VAR coefficients are arranged as a three-dimensional array or tensor, and this coefficient tensor is parameterized using a low-rank CP decomposition. We develop a…

The purpose of this paper is to propose a time-varying vector autoregressive model (TV-VAR) for forecasting multivariate time series. The model is casted into a state-space form that allows flexible description and analysis. The volatility…

Time series of matrix-valued data are increasingly available in various areas including economics, finance, social science, among others. These data may shed light on the inter-dynamical relationships between two sets of attributes, for…

This paper presents a new parameter estimation algorithm for the adaptive control of a class of time-varying plants. The main feature of this algorithm is a matrix of time-varying learning rates, which enables parameter estimation error…

Linear Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) models where the innovations could be unconditionally heteroscedastic and serially dependent are considered. The volatility structure is deterministic and quite general, including breaks or trending…

Invariant Causal Prediction (Peters et al., 2016) is a technique for out-of-distribution generalization which assumes that some aspects of the data distribution vary across the training set but that the underlying causal mechanisms remain…