相关论文: Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International…

It is well-accepted that the ability to go from one place to another, or mobility, contributes significantly to one's wellbeing. The need for mobility is universal, but the demand for mobility shows a great variation on a country basis.…

Discrete optimal transportation problems arise in various contexts in engineering, the sciences and the social sciences. Often the underlying cost criterion is unknown, or only partly known, and the observed optimal solutions are corrupted…

The United Nations (UN) Population Division is considering producing probabilistic projections for the total fertility rate (TFR) using the Bayesian hierarchical model of Alkema et al. (2011), which produces predictive distributions of TFR…

The sex ratio at birth (SRB) is defined as the ratio of male to female live births. The SRB imbalance in parts of the world over the past several decades is a direct consequence of sex-selective abortion, driven by the co-existence of son…

Analysis of the urban population fraction data for sixteen populous countries over the last fifty years reveals a universal increase in urbanization, exhibiting four qualitatively distinct temporal patterns: (i) continuously accelerating…

Improving health worldwide will require rigorous quantification of population-level trends in health status. However, global-level surveys are not available, forcing researchers to rely on fragmentary country-specific data of varying…

This paper shows how measures of uncertainty can be applied to existing population forecasts using Estonia as a case study. The measures of forecast uncertainty are relatively easy to calculate and meet several important criteria used by…

In this paper we study some mathematical models describing evolution of population density and spread of epidemics in population systems in which spatial movement of individuals depends only on the departure and arrival locations and does…

A key question in evolution is how likely a mutant is to take over. This depends on natural selection and on stochastic fluctuations. Population spatial structure can impact mutant fixation probabilities. We introduce a model for structured…

A rapid decline in mortality and fertility has become major issues in many developed countries over the past few decades. A precise model for forecasting demographic movements is important for decision making in social welfare policies and…

This paper considers a multi-patch model, where each patch follows a logistic law, and patches are coupled by asymmetrical migration terms. First, in the case of perfect mixing, i.e when the migration rate tends to infinity, the total…

Accurate estimates of subnational populations are important for policy formulation and monitoring population health indicators. For example, estimates of the number of women of reproductive age are important to understand the population at…

Knowing and modelling the migration phenomena and especially the social and economic consequences have a theoretical and practical importance, being related to their consequences for development, economic progress (or as appropriate,…

China's structural changes have brought new challenges to its regional employment structures, entailing labour redistribution. By now Chinese research on migration decisions with a forward-looking stand and on bilateral longitudinal…

This paper presents a mixed-methodology to forecast illegal border crossings in Europe across five key migratory routes, with a one-year time horizon. The methodology integrates machine learning techniques with qualitative insights from…

As of this writing, there are five years remaining for countries to reach their Sustainable Development Goals deadline of 2030 as agreed to by the member countries of the United Nations. Countries are, therefore, naturally interested in…

Migration's impact spans various social dimensions, including demography, sustainability, politics, economy and gender disparities. Yet, the decision-making process behind migrants choosing their destination remains elusive. Existing models…

A probability model is presented for the dynamics of mutation-selection balance in a haploid infinite-population infinite-sites setting sufficiently general to cover mutation-driven changes in full age-specific demographic schedules. The…

We examine world migration as a social-spatial network of countries connected via movements of people. We assess how multilateral migratory relationships at global, regional, and local scales coexist ("glocalization"), divide…

We introduce a general modeling framework to predict the outcomes, at the population level, of individual psychology and behavior. The framework prescribes that researchers build a cost function that embodies knowledge of what trait values…