相关论文: Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International…
The original version of Bayesian reconstruction, a method for estimating age-specific fertility, mortality, migration and population counts of the recent past with uncertainty, produced estimates for female-only populations. Here we show…
Human mobility is investigated using a continuum approach that allows to calculate the probability to observe a trip to anyarbitrary region, and the fluxes between any two regions. The considered description offers a general and unified…
Ignoring the differences between countries, human reproductive and dispersal behaviors can be described by some standardized models, so whether there is a universal law of population growth hidden in the abundant and unstructured data from…
Statistical inference about the speciation process has often been based on the isolation-with-migration (IM) model, especially when the research aim is to learn about the presence or absence of gene flow during divergence. The generalised…
We introduce the Mass Migration Process (MMP), a conservative particle system on ${\mathbb N}^{{\mathbb Z}^d}$. It consists in jumps of $k$ particles ($k\ge 1$) between sites, with a jump rate depending only on the state of the system at…
We propose a general methodology to measure labour market dynamics, inspired by the search and matching framework, based on the estimate of the transition rates between labour market states. We show how to estimate instantaneous transition…
Trajectory prediction is a fundamental and challenging task for numerous applications, such as autonomous driving and intelligent robots. Currently, most of existing work treat the pedestrian trajectory as a series of fixed two-dimensional…
The bayesTFR package for R provides a set of functions to produce probabilistic projections of the total fertility rates (TFR) for all countries, and is widely used, including as part of the basis for the UN's official population…
We propose a Bayesian methodology for one-mode projecting a bipartite network that is being observed across a series of discrete time steps. The resulting one mode network captures the uncertainty over the presence/absence of each link and…
A method for change point detection is proposed. We consider a univariate sequence of independent random variables with piecewise constant expectation and variance, apart from which the distribution may vary periodically. We aim to detect…
In this paper, we introduce a general numerical method to approximate the reproduction numbers of a large class of multi-group, age-structured, population models with a finite age span. To provide complete flexibility in the definition of…
Differences in the social and economic environment across countries encourage humans to migrate in search of better living conditions, including job opportunities, higher salaries, security and welfare. Quantifying global migration is,…
Recent availability of geo-localized data capturing individual human activity together with the statistical data on international migration opened up unprecedented opportunities for a study on global mobility. In this paper we consider it…
This paper sets out a forecasting method that employs a mixture of parametric functions to capture the pattern of fertility with respect to age. The overall level of cohort fertility is decomposed over the range of fertile ages using a…
Epidemic dynamics in a stochastic network of interacting epidemic centers is considered. The epidemic and migration processes are modelled by Markov's chains. Explicit formulas for probability distribution of the migration process are…
We derive a composite centrality measure for general weighted and directed complex networks, based on measure standardisation and invariant statistical inheritance schemes. Different schemes generate different intermediate abstract measures…
The probability of the survival of the population of individuals of both sexes of given mature age, procreation rate and structure stability has been searched in the numerical experiment. The populations with long period of reproduction and…
The paper contains the complete analysis of the Galton-Watson models with immigration, including the processes in the random environment, stationary or non-stationary ones. We also study the branching random walk on $Z^d$ with immigration…
Several demographic and health indicators, including the total fertility rate (TFR) and modern contraceptive use rate (mCPR), evolve similarly over time, characterized by a transition between stable states. Existing approaches for…
Predicting human mobility patterns has many practical applications in urban planning, traffic engineering, infectious disease epidemiology, emergency management and location-based services. Developing a universal model capable of accurately…