相关论文: Bayesian inference of epidemics on networks via Be…

The massive employment of computational models in network epidemiology calls for the development of improved inference methods for epidemic forecast. For simple compartment models, such as the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model, Belief…

Infectious diseases are studied to understand their spreading mechanisms, to evaluate control strategies and to predict the risk and course of future outbreaks. Because people only interact with a small number of individuals, and because…

A Belief Propagation approach has been recently proposed for the zero-patient problem in a SIR epidemics. The zero-patient problem consists in finding the initial source of an epidemic outbreak given observations at a later time. In this…

Using the continuous-time susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on networks, we investigate the problem of inferring the class of the underlying network when epidemic data is only available at population-level (i.e. the number of…

The study of social networks, and in particular the spread of disease on networks, has attracted considerable recent attention in the physics community. In this paper, we show that a large class of standard epidemiological models, the…

Individual-based models of contagious processes are useful for predicting epidemic trajectories and informing intervention strategies. In such models, the incorporation of contact network information can capture the non-randomness and…

Understanding the process by which a contagion disseminates throughout a network is of great importance in many real world applications. The required sophistication of the inference approach depends on the type of information we want to…

In most models of the spread of disease over contact networks it is assumed that the probabilities per unit time of disease transmission and recovery from disease are constant, implying exponential distributions of the time intervals for…

This work examines the discrete-time networked SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) epidemic model, where the infection and recovery parameters may be time-varying. We provide a sufficient condition for the SIR model to converge to the set…

Belief propagation is a widely used message passing method for the solution of probabilistic models on networks such as epidemic models, spin models, and Bayesian graphical models, but it suffers from the serious shortcoming that it works…

The study of SIS epidemics on networks has stressed the role of the network topology on the spreading process. However, accurate models of SIS epidemics rely on the complete knowledge of the network topology, which is often not available.…

We consider the problem of identifying the source of an epidemic, spreading through a network, from a complete observation of the infected nodes in a snapshot of the network. Previous work on the problem has often employed geometric,…

Detection of patient-zero can give new insights to the epidemiologists about the nature of first transmissions into a population. In this paper, we study the statistical inference problem of detecting the source of epidemics from a snapshot…

Early, reliable detection of disease outbreaks is a critical problem today. This paper reports an investigation of the use of causal Bayesian networks to model spatio-temporal patterns of a non-contagious disease (respiratory anthrax…

We study the dynamics of a spatially structured model of worldwide epidemics and formulate predictions for arrival times of the disease at any city in the network. The model is comprised of a system of ordinary differential equations…

The reconstruction of missing information in epidemic spreading on contact networks can be essential in the prevention and containment strategies. The identification and warning of infectious but asymptomatic individuals (i.e., contact…

In this paper we study the diffusion of an SIS-type epidemics on a network under the presence of a random environment, that enters in the definition of the infection rates of the nodes. Accordingly, we model the infection rates in the form…

We present a modelling framework for the spreading of epidemics on temporal networks from which both the individual-based and pair-based models can be recovered. The proposed temporal pair-based model that is systematically derived from…

Belief Propagation (BP) is an efficient message-passing algorithm widely used for inference in graphical models and for solving various problems in statistical physics. However, BP often yields inaccurate estimates of order parameters and…

The vast majority of models for the spread of communicable diseases are parametric in nature and involve underlying assumptions about how the disease spreads through a population. In this article we consider the use of Bayesian…