相关论文: A Tail Sensitive Test for Cumulative Distribution …
Although power laws of the Zipf type have been used by many workers to fit rank distributions in different fields like in economy, geophysics, genetics, soft-matter, networks etc., these fits usually fail at the tails. Some distributions…
This note presents an operational measure of fat-tailedness for univariate probability distributions, in $[0,1]$ where 0 is maximally thin-tailed (Gaussian) and 1 is maximally fat-tailed. Among others,1) it helps assess the sample size…
We introduce the Zeta Tail(a) probability distribution as a new model for random damage-event counts in risk analysis. Although readily motivated as an analogue of the Geometric(p) distribution, Zeta Tail(a) has received little attention in…
We consider the estimation of small probabilities or other risk quantities associated with rare but catastrophic events. In the model-based literature, much of the focus has been devoted to efficient Monte Carlo computation or analytical…
We propose and analyze a new estimator of the covariance matrix that admits strong theoretical guarantees under weak assumptions on the underlying distribution, such as existence of moments of only low order. While estimation of covariance…
Our work aims to study the tail behaviour of weighted sums of the form $\sum_{i=1}^{\infty} X_{i} \prod_{j=1}^{i}Y_{j}$, where $(X_{i}, Y_{i})$ are independent and identically distributed, with common joint distribution bivariate Sarmanov.…
Assessing and managing risks in a changing climate requires projections that account for decision-relevant uncertainties. These deep uncertainties are often approximated by ensembles of Earth-system model runs that sample only a subset of…
A new three-parameter cumulative distribution function defined on $(\alpha,\infty)$, for some $\alpha\geq0$, with asymmetric probability density function and showing exponential decays at its both tails, is introduced. The new distribution…
We extend known saddlepoint tail probability approximations to multivariate cases, including multivariate conditional cases. Our approximation applies to both continuous and lattice variables, and requires the existence of a cumulant…
A decision must often be made between heavy-tailed and Gaussian errors for a regression or a time series model, and the t-distribution is frequently used when it is assumed that the errors are heavy-tailed distributed. The performance of…
We discuss an "operational" approach to testing convex composite hypotheses when the underlying distributions are heavy-tailed. It relies upon Euclidean separation of convex sets and can be seen as an extension of the approach to testing by…
We derive tests of stationarity for univariate time series by combining change-point tests sensitive to changes in the contemporary distribution with tests sensitive to changes in the serial dependence. The proposed approach relies on a…
Multivariate Distributions are needed to capture the correlation structure of complex systems. In previous works, we developed a Random Matrix Model for such correlated multivariate joint probability density functions that accounts for the…
The use of a hypothetical generative model was been suggested for causal analysis of observational data. The very assumption of a particular model is a commitment to a certain set of variables and therefore to a certain set of possible…
Our goal in this paper is to propose an alternative risk measure which takes into account the fluctuations of losses and possible correlations between random variables. This new notion of risk measures, that we call Copula Conditional Tail…
A discrete version of the Gumbel (Type I) extreme value distribution has been derived by using the general approach of discretization of a continuous distribution. Important distributional and reliability properties have been explored. It…
We present a nonparametric family of estimators for the tail index of a Pareto-type distribution when covariate information is available. Our estimators are based on a weighted sum of the log-spacings between some selected observations.…
This paper proposes a specification test for the conventional distributional assumptions of error terms in binary choice models, focusing on its tail properties. Based on extreme value theory, we first establish that the tail index of the…
A random vector $X$ with representation $X=\sum_{j\geq0}A_jZ_j$ is considered. Here, $(Z_j)$ is a sequence of independent and identically distributed random vectors and $(A_j)$ is a sequence of random matrices, `predictable' with respect to…
We consider the tail distribution of the edge cover time of a specific non-Markov process, $\delta$ once-reinforced random walk, on finite connected graphs, whose transition probability is proportional to weights of edges. Here the weights…