相关论文: Stochastic amplification in an epidemic model with…
Based on the classical SIR model, we derive a simple modification for the dynamics of epidemics with a known incubation period of infection. The model is described by a system of integro-differential equations. Parameters of our model…
The classic SIR model of epidemic dynamics is solved completely by quadratures, including a time integral transform expanded in a series of incomplete gamma functions. The model is also generalized to arbitrary time-dependent infection…
The susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and its variants form the foundation of our understanding of the spread of diseases. Here, each agent can be in one of three states (susceptible, infected, or recovered), and transitions…
The infection dynamics of a population under stationary isolation conditions is modeled. It is underlined that the stationary character of the isolation measures can be expected to imply that an effective SIR model with constant parameters…
Large-scale crises, including wars and pandemics, have repeatedly shaped human history, and their simultaneous occurrence presents profound challenges to societies. Understanding the dynamics of epidemic spread during warfare is essential…
We study an individual-based stochastic spatial epidemic model where the number of locations and the number of individuals at each location both grow to infinity. Each individual is associated with a random infection-age dependent…
This paper revisits a longstanding problem of interest concerning the distributed control of an epidemic process on human contact networks. Due to the stochastic nature and combinatorial complexity of the problem, finding optimal policies…
During pandemic events, strategies such as social distancing can be fundamental to curb viral spreading. Such actions can reduce the number of simultaneous infections and mitigate the disease spreading, which is relevant to the risk of a…
A network epidemic model is studied. The underlying social network has two different types of group structures, households and workplaces, such that each individual belongs to exactly one household and one workplace. The random network is…
We introduce an extension to Kermack and McKendrick's classic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model in epidemiology, whose underlying mechanism of infection consists of individuals attending randomly generated social gatherings. This…
Health-policy planning requires evidence on the burden that epidemics place on healthcare systems. Multiple, often dependent, datasets provide a noisy and fragmented signal from the unobserved epidemic process including transmission and…
In this paper, a stochastic SEQIR epidemic model with Markovian regime-switching is proposed and investigated. The governmental policy and implement efficiency are concerned by a generalized incidence function of the susceptible class. We…
We consider an SIR-type (Susceptible $\to$ Infected $\to$ Recovered) stochastic epidemic process with multiple modes of transmission on a contact network. The network is given by a random graph following a multilayer configuration model…
Modeling epidemic dynamics plays an important role in studying how diseases spread, predicting their future course, and designing strategies to control them. In this letter, we introduce a model of SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) type…
Traditional epidemic models consider that individual processes occur at constant rates. That is, an infected individual has a constant probability per unit time of recovering from infection after contagion. This assumption certainly fails…
This paper deals with a new epidemiological model of SIRS with stochastic perturbations. The primary objective is to establish the existence of a unique non-negative nonlocal solution. Using the basic reproduction number $\mathscr{R}_0$…
We introduce non-Markovian SIR epidemic spreading model inspired by the characteristics of the COVID-19, by considering discrete- and continuous-time versions. The incubation period, delayed infectiousness and the distribution of the…
We have derived the governing equations for an SIR model with delay terms in both the infectivity and recovery of the disease. The equations are derived by modelling the dynamics as a continuous time random walk, where individuals move…
Stochastic models are widely used to investigate the spread of epidemics in a complex environment. This paper extends a deterministic SAIRS epidemic model to a stochastic case with limited patient capacity and exposure. We first study the…
In this paper, we consider a discrete-time stochastic SIR model, where the transmission rate and the true number of infectious individuals are random and unobservable. An advantage of this model is that it permits us to account for random…