相关论文: Limit theorems for a general stochastic rumour mod…

We show that a simple model for the propagation of a rumor on a small-world network exhibits critical behavior at a finite randomness of the underlying graph. The transition occurs between a regime where the rumor "dies" in a small…

We provide a systematic study of the problem of finding the source of a rumor in a network. We model rumor spreading in a network with a variant of the popular SIR model and then construct an estimator for the rumor source. This estimator…

In this paper we study a rational inattention model in environments where the decision maker faces uncertainty about the true prior distribution over states. The decision maker seeks to select a stochastic choice rule over a finite set of…

The standard central limit theorem with a Gaussian attractor for the sum of independent random variables may lose its validity in presence of strong correlations between the added random contributions. Here, we study this problem for…

We study the asymptotic macroscopic properties of the mixed majority-minority game, modeling a population in which two types of heterogeneous adaptive agents, namely ``fundamentalists'' driven by differentiation and ``trend-followers''…

The influence of contrarians on the noisy voter model is studied at the mean-field level. The noisy voter model is a variant of the voter model where agents can adopt two opinions, optimistic or pessimistic, and can change them by means of…

We develop a theory of estimation when in addition to a sample of $n$ observed outcomes the underlying probabilities of the observed outcomes are known, as is typically the case in the context of numerical simulation modeling, e.g. in…

We explore uncertainty quantification in large language models (LLMs), with the goal to identify when uncertainty in responses given a query is large. We simultaneously consider both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, where the former…

An asymmetric information model is introduced for the situation in which there is a small agent who is more susceptible to the flow of information in the market than the general market participant, and who tries to implement strategies…

The principle of rewarding a crowd for surprisingly common answers has been used in the literature for designing a number of truthful information elicitation mechanisms. A related method has also been proposed in the literature for better…

This paper develops a qualitative framework for analysing the impact of rumours on complex investment decisions (CID) under severe information constraints. The proposed trend-based models rely on minimal data inputs in the form of…

Several Artificial Intelligence schemes for reasoning under uncertainty explore either explicitly or implicitly asymmetries among probabilities of various states of their uncertain domain models. Even though the correct working of these…

We adapt arguments concerning information-theoretic convergence in the Central Limit Theorem to the case of dependent random variables under Rosenblatt mixing conditions. The key is to work with random variables perturbed by the addition of…

This paper models information diffusion in a network of Large Language Models (LLMs) that is designed to answer queries from distributed datasets, where the LLMs can hallucinate the answer. We introduce a two-time-scale dynamical model for…

The bounded confidence model of opinion dynamics, introduced by Deffuant et al, is a stochastic model for the evolution of continuous-valued opinions within a finite group of peers. We prove that, as time goes to infinity, the opinions…

Information and uncertainty are closely related and extensively studied concepts in a number of scientific disciplines such as communication theory, probability theory, and statistics. Increasing the information arguably reduces the…

We propose and analyze a quasirandom analogue of the classical push model for disseminating information in networks ("randomized rumor spreading"). In the classical model, in each round each informed vertex chooses a neighbor at random and…

When opinions, behaviors or ideas diffuse within a population, some are invariably stickier than others. The stickier the opinion, behavior or idea, the greater is an individual's inertia to replace it with an alternative. Here we study the…

In the era of the rapid development of the Internet, the threshold for information spreading has become lower. Most of the time, rumors, as a special kind of information, are harmful to society. And once the rumor appears, the truth will…

In this paper, we consider a random network such that there could be a link between any two nodes in the network with a certain probability (plink). Diffusion is the phenomenon of spreading information throughout the network, starting from…