相关论文: Limit theorems for a general stochastic rumour mod…

When ignorance due to the lack of knowledge, modeled as epistemic uncertainty using Dempster-Shafer structures on closed intervals, is present in the model parameters, a new uncertainty propagation method is necessary to propagate both…

We investigate a population of binary mistake sequences that result from learning with parametric models of different order. We obtain estimates of their error, algorithmic complexity and divergence from a purely random Bernoulli sequence.…

Relational probabilistic models have the challenge of aggregation, where one variable depends on a population of other variables. Consider the problem of predicting gender from movie ratings; this is challenging because the number of movies…

We study a stochastic model of anonymous influence with conformist and anti-conformist individuals. Each agent with a `yes' or `no' initial opinion on a certain issue can change his opinion due to social influence. We consider anonymous…

We study the central limit theorem in the non-normal domain of attraction to symmetric $\alpha$-stable laws for $0<\alpha\leq2$. We show that for i.i.d. random variables $X_i$, the convergence rate in $L^\infty$ of both the densities and…

This work analyses surprising elections, and attempts to quantify the notion of surprise in elections. A voter is surprised if their estimate of the winner (assumed to be based on a combination of the preferences of their social connections…

With technologies that have democratized the production and reproduction of information, a significant portion of daily interacted posts in social media has been infected by rumors. Despite the extensive research on rumor detection and…

This paper considers a problem of distributed hypothesis testing and social learning. Individual nodes in a network receive noisy local (private) observations whose distribution is parameterized by a discrete parameter (hypotheses). The…

Critical thinking and skepticism are fundamental mechanisms that one may use to prevent the spreading of rumors, fake-news and misinformation. We consider a simple model in which agents without previous contact with the rumor, being…

A random variable (r.v.) X is said to follow Benford's law if log(X) is uniform mod 1. Many experimental data sets prove to follow an approximate version of it, and so do many mathematical series and continuous random variables. This…

With the increasing use of online social networks as a source of news and information, the propensity for a rumor to disseminate widely and quickly poses a great concern, especially in disaster situations where users do not have enough time…

We give simple proofs, under minimal hypotheses, of the Weak Law of Large Numbers and the Central Limit Theorem for independent identically distributed random variables. These proofs use only the elementary calculus, together with the most…

The Schelling model of segregation looks to explain the way in which a population of agents or particles of two types may come to organise itself into large homogeneous clusters, and can be seen as a variant of the Ising model in which the…

The stratified proportional intensity model generalizes Cox's proportional intensity model by allowing different groups of the population under study to have distinct baseline intensity functions. In this article, we consider the problem of…

We consider the problem of detecting the source of a rumor which has spread in a network using only observations about which set of nodes are infected with the rumor and with no information as to \emph{when} these nodes became infected. In…

We study a rumour model from a percolation theory and branching process point of view. The existence of a giant component is related to the event where the rumour, which started from the root of a tree, spreads out through an infinite…

The outcome of an election depends not only on which candidate is more popular, but also on how many of their voters actually turn out to vote. Here we consider a simple model in which voters abstain from voting if they think their vote…

Rumour spreading is a protocol for modelling the spread of information through a network via user-to-user interaction. The Spatial Preferred Attachment (SPA) model is a random graph model for complex networks: vertices are placed in a…

Information and individual activities often spread globally through the network of social ties. While social contagion phenomena have been extensively studied within the framework of threshold models, it is common to make an assumption that…

We introduce a theoretical model of information acquisition under resource limitations in a noisy environment. An agent must guess the truth value of a given Boolean formula $\varphi$ after performing a bounded number of noisy tests of the…