相关论文: The Ups and Downs of Modeling Financial Time Serie…
Missing time-series data is a prevalent practical problem. Imputation methods in time-series data often are applied to the full panel data with the purpose of training a model for a downstream out-of-sample task. For example, in finance,…
We introduce a class of stochastic volatility models $(X_t)_{t \geq 0}$ for which the absolute moments of the increments exhibit anomalous scaling: $\E\left(|X_{t+h} - X_t|^q \right)$ scales as $h^{q/2}$ for $q < q^*$, but as $h^{A(q)}$…
We report on the emergence of scaling laws in the temporal evolution of the daily closing values of the S\&P 500 index prices and its modeling based on the L\'evy flights in two dimensions (2D). The efficacy of our proposed model is…
We develop efficient methods for simulating processes of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type related to the class of $p$-tempered $\alpha$-stable ($\ts$) distributions. Our results hold for both the univariate and multivariate cases and we consider…
Researchers have studied the first passage time of financial time series and observed that the smallest time interval needed for a stock index to move a given distance is typically shorter for negative than for positive price movements. The…
Recent developments in financial time series focus on modeling volatility across multiple assets or indices in a multivariate framework, accounting for potential interactions such as spillover effects. Furthermore, the increasing…
We discuss several models in order to shed light on the origin of power-law distributions and power-law correlations in financial time series. From an empirical point of view, the exponents describing the tails of the price increments…
Metastability is a phenomenon observed in stochastic systems which stay in a false-equilibrium within a region of its state space until the occurrence of a sequence of rare events that leads to an abrupt transition to a different region.…
In this paper we propose a bivariate generalization of a weighted indexed semi-Markov chains to study the high frequency price dynamics of traded stocks. We assume that financial returns are described by a weighted indexed semi-Markov chain…
We consider stochastic point processes generating time series exhibiting power laws of spectrum and distribution density (Phys. Rev. E 71, 051105 (2005)) and apply them for modeling the trading activity in the financial markets and for the…
The shortcomings of the popular Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) model have led to models which could more accurately model the behavior of the underlying assets in energy markets, particularly in electricity and future oil prices. In this paper…
A microscopic model of financial markets is considered, consisting of many interacting agents (spins) with global coupling and discrete-time thermal bath dynamics, similar to random Ising systems. The interactions between agents change…
In the regime switching extension of Black-Scholes-Merton model of asset price dynamics, one assumes that the volatility coefficient evolves as a hidden pure jump process. Under the assumption of Markov regime switching, we have considered…
Modeling the evolution of a financial index as a stochastic process is a problem awaiting a full, satisfactory solution since it was first formulated by Bachelier in 1900. Here it is shown that the scaling with time of the return…
In this paper, we introduce a new time series model having a stochastic exponential tail. This model is constructed based on the Normal Tempered Stable distribution with a time-varying parameter. The model captures the stochastic…
Using available data from the New York stock market (NYSM) we test four different bi-parametric models to fit the correspondent volume-price distributions at each $10$-minute lag: the Gamma distribution, the inverse Gamma distribution, the…
A theory which describes the share price evolution at financial markets as a continuous-time random walk has been generalized in order to take into account the dependence of waiting times t on price returns x. A joint probability density…
We study, both analytically and numerically, an ARCH-like, multiscale model of volatility, which assumes that the volatility is governed by the observed past price changes on different time scales. With a power-law distribution of time…
We extend the Bismut-Elworthy-Li formula to non-degenerate jump diffusions and "payoff" functions depending on the process at multiple future times. In the spirit of Fournie et al [13] and Davis and Johansson [9] this can improve Monte…
To address the complexity of financial time series, this paper proposes a forecasting model combining sliding window and variational mode decomposition (VMD) methods. Historical stock prices and relevant market indicators are used to…