相关论文: Undestanding Baseball Team Standings and Streaks

Ranking sportsmen whose careers took place in different eras is often a contentious issue and the topic of much debate. In this paper we focus on cricket and examine what conclusions may be drawn about the ranking of Test batsmen using data…

Tennis is a popular sport worldwide, boasting millions of fans and numerous national and international tournaments. Like many sports, tennis has benefitted from the popularity of rigorous record-keeping of game and player information, as…

In a zero-sum stochastic game with signals, at each stage, two adversary players take decisions and receive a stage payoff determined by these decisions and a variable called state. The state follows a Markov chain, that is controlled by…

"The chance to win given a certain move" is an easily obtainable quantity from data and often quoted in gaming statistics. It is also the fundamental quantity that reinforcement learning AI bases on. Unfortunately, this conditional…

We present here a simple mathematical model that provides a successful strategy, quantitatively, to ending the continued championship futility experienced by Canadian Hockey Teams. Competitive Intransitivity is used here as a simple…

Score-based divergences have been widely used in machine learning and statistics applications. Despite their empirical success, a blindness problem has been observed when using these for multi-modal distributions. In this work, we discuss…

As a baseball game progresses, batters appear to perform better the more times they face a particular pitcher. The apparent drop-off in pitcher performance from one time through the order to the next, known as the Time Through the Order…

We propose a game-theoretic framework that incorporates both incomplete information and general ambiguity attitudes on factors external to all players. Our starting point is players' preferences on payoff-distribution vectors, essentially…

It has been noted that in many professional sports leagues a good predictor of a team's won-loss percentage is Bill James' Pythagorean Formula RSobs^c / (RSobs^c + RAobs^c), where RSobs (resp. RAobs) is the observed average number of runs…

The forecasting of sports events is of broad interest from the applied but also from the theoretical perspective. In this work the question is addressed for the example of the German soccer Bundesliga how a theoretically optimum forecast of…

This work addresses the challenge of providing consistent explanations for predictive models in the presence of model indeterminacy, which arises due to the existence of multiple (nearly) equally well-performing models for a given dataset…

We study density estimation from pairwise comparisons, motivated by expert knowledge elicitation and learning from human feedback. We relate the unobserved target density to a tempered winner density (marginal density of preferred choices),…

We extract and use player position time-series data, tagged along with the action types, to build a competent model for representing team tactics behavioral patterns and use this representation to predict the outcome of arbitrary movements.…

A new formalism for analyzing the progression of cricket game using Stochastic differential equation (SDE) is introduced. This theory enables a quantitative way of representing every team using three key variables which have physical…

Ranking athletes by their performance in competitions and tournaments is common in every popular sport and has significant benefits that contribute to both the organization and strategic aspects of competitions. Although rankings are…

The theory of complex networks and of disordered systems is used to study the stability and dynamical properties of a simple model of material flow networks defined on random graphs. In particular we address instabilities that are…

Two-player zero-sum repeated games are well understood. Computing the value of such a game is straightforward. Additionally, if the payoffs are dependent on a random state of the game known to one, both, or neither of the players, the…

The Minority Game framework was recently generalized to account for the possibility that agents adapt not only through strategy selection but also by diversifying their response according to the kind of dynamical regime, or the risk, they…

We consider the two-sided stable matching setting in which there may be uncertainty about the agents' preferences due to limited information or communication. We consider three models of uncertainty: (1) lottery model --- in which for each…

In this paper, a new continuous scoring system for soccer is proposed, based on the proportion of time that a team is winning, losing or tied. Several simulations are made applying this technique to complete seasons of different leagues. As…