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We present a new statistical test to detect that a presented state of a reversible Markov chain was not chosen from a stationary distribution. In particular, given a value function for the states of the Markov chain, we would like to…

概率论 · 数学 2022-06-08 Maria Chikina , Alan Frieze , Wesley Pegden

Given a finite typed rooted tree $T$ with $n$ vertices, the {\em empirical subtree measure} is the uniform measure on the $n$ typed subtrees of $T$ formed by taking all descendants of a single vertex. We prove a large deviation principle in…

概率论 · 数学 2007-05-23 Amir Dembo , Peter Morters , Scott Sheffield

Using the renewal approach we prove exponential inequalities for additive functionals and empirical processes of ergodic Markov chains, thus obtaining counterparts of inequalities for sums of independent random variables. The inequalities…

概率论 · 数学 2013-10-18 Radosław Adamczak , Witold Bednorz

We extend Hoeffding's lemma to general-state-space and not necessarily reversible Markov chains. Let $\{X_i\}_{i \ge 1}$ be a stationary Markov chain with invariant measure $\pi$ and absolute spectral gap $1-\lambda$, where $\lambda$ is…

统计理论 · 数学 2018-07-19 Jianqing Fan , Bai Jiang , Qiang Sun

The distribution of the "mixing time" or the "time to stationarity" in a discrete time irreducible Markov chain, starting in state i, can be defined as the number of trials to reach a state sampled from the stationary distribution of the…

概率论 · 数学 2014-03-05 Jeffrey J. Hunter

We consider a sequence of additive functionals {\phi_n}, set on a sequence of Markov chains {X_n} that weakly converges to a Markov process X. We give sufficient condition for such a sequence to converge in distribution, formulated in terms…

概率论 · 数学 2007-05-23 Yuri N. Kartashov , Alexey M. Kulik

We study the large deviations of Markov chains under the sole assumption that the state space is discrete. In particular, we do not require any of the usual irreducibility and exponential tightness assumptions. Using subadditive arguments,…

概率论 · 数学 2026-05-15 Léo Daures

Take $G$ a locally compact second-countable group, and $H$ a subgroup of $G$. Choose $\mu$ a probability measure on $G$, such that the group spanned by its support is dense in $G$, and consider the Markov chain on the homogeneous space…

动力系统 · 数学 2016-07-20 Caroline Bruère

Starting from a Markov chain with a finite alphabet, we consider the chain obtained when all but one symbol are undistinguishable for the practitioner. We study necessary and sufficient conditions for this chain to have continuous…

概率论 · 数学 2014-09-23 Walter A. F. de Carvalho , Sandro Gallo , Nancy L. Garcia

A common tool in the practice of Markov Chain Monte Carlo is to use approximating transition kernels to speed up computation when the desired kernel is slow to evaluate or intractable. A limited set of quantitative tools exist to assess the…

概率论 · 数学 2026-01-14 Jeffrey Negrea , Jeffrey S. Rosenthal

Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms are invaluable tools for exploring stationary properties of physical systems, especially in situations where direct sampling is unfeasible. Common implementations of Monte Carlo algorithms employ…

统计力学 · 物理学 2016-04-27 Marija Vucelja

We examine two analytical characterisation of the metastable behavior of a Markov chain. The first one expressed in terms of its transition probabilities, and the second one in terms of its large deviations rate functional. Consider a…

概率论 · 数学 2022-07-07 L. Bertini , D. Gabrielli , C. Landim

An (upward) skip-free Markov chain with the set of nonnegative integers as state space is a chain for which upward jumps may be only of unit size; there is no restriction on downward jumps. In a 1987 paper, Brown and Shao determined, for an…

概率论 · 数学 2009-05-06 James Allen Fill

We introduce a natural conjugate prior for the transition matrix of a reversible Markov chain. This allows estimation and testing. The prior arises from random walk with reinforcement in the same way the Dirichlet prior arises from…

统计理论 · 数学 2007-06-13 Persi Diaconis , Silke W. W. Rolles

It is known that state-dependent, multi-step Lyapunov bounds lead to greatly simplified verification theorems for stability for large classes of Markov chain models. This is one component of the "fluid model" approach to stability of…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2012-05-18 Serdar Yüksel , Sean P. Meyn

We present an algorithm that can efficiently compute a broad class of inferences for discrete-time imprecise Markov chains, a generalised type of Markov chains that allows one to take into account partially specified probabilities and other…

概率论 · 数学 2019-07-02 Natan T'Joens , Thomas Krak , Jasper De Bock , Gert de Cooman

This paper provides a new path method that can be used to determine when an ergodic continuous-time Markov chain on $\mathbb Z^d$ converges exponentially fast to its stationary distribution in $L^2$. Specifically, we provide general…

概率论 · 数学 2023-10-02 David F. Anderson , Daniele Cappelletti , Wai-Tong Louis Fan , Jinsu Kim

Markov chains with variable length are useful parsimonious stochastic models able to generate most stationary sequence of discrete symbols. The idea is to identify the suffixes of the past, called contexts, that are relevant to predict the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-01-10 Victor Freguglia , Nancy Garcia

Scaled type Markov renewal processes generalize classical renewal processes: renewal times come from a one parameter family of probability laws and the sequence of the parameters is the trajectory of an ergodic Markov chain. Our primary…

概率论 · 数学 2015-03-17 Zsolt Pajor-Gyulai , Domokos Szász

We exhibit an efficient procedure for testing, based on a single long state sequence, whether an unknown Markov chain is identical to or $\varepsilon$-far from a given reference chain. We obtain nearly matching (up to logarithmic factors)…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-09-26 Geoffrey Wolfer , Aryeh Kontorovich