相关论文: Embedding Population Dynamics Models in Inference

Recent studies have shown that ensemble approaches could not only improve accuracy and but also estimate model uncertainty in deep learning. However, it requires a large number of parameters according to the increase of ensemble models for…

Ecosystems tend to fluctuate around stable equilibria in response to internal dynamics and environmental factors. Occasionally, they enter an unstable tipping region and collapse into an alternative stable state. Our understanding of how…

Traditionally, population models distinguish individuals on the basis of their current state. Given a distribution, a discrete time model then specifies (precisely in deterministic models, probabilistically in stochastic models) the…

The widespread adoption of machine learning surrogate models has significantly improved the scale and complexity of systems and processes that can be explored accurately and efficiently using atomistic modeling. However, the inherently…

We study the population profile in a simple discrete time model of population dynamics. Our model, which is closely related to certain ``bit-string'' models of evolution, incorporates competition for resources via a population dependent…

Simulation models are an absolute necessity in the human and social sciences, which can only very exceptionally use experimental science methods to construct their knowledge. Models enable the simulation of social processes by replacing the…

Most population models assume that individuals within a given population are identical, that is, the fundamental role of variation is ignored. Here we develop a general approach to modeling heterogeneous populations with discrete…

Planning with generative models has emerged as an effective decision-making paradigm across a wide range of domains, including reinforcement learning and autonomous navigation. While continuous replanning at each timestep might seem…

In this paper we study some mathematical models describing evolution of population density and spread of epidemics in population systems in which spatial movement of individuals depends only on the departure and arrival locations and does…

Modeling environmental ecosystems is essential for effective resource management, sustainable development, and understanding complex ecological processes. However, traditional methods frequently struggle with the inherent complexity,…

This survey focuses on the most important aspects of the mathematical theory of population genetic models of selection and migration between discrete niches. Such models are most appropriate if the dispersal distance is short compared to…

Measures of wealth and production have been found to scale superlinearly with the population of a city. Therefore, it makes economic sense for humans to congregate together in dense settlements. A recent model of population dynamics showed…

In this paper we propose a classification of crowd models in built environments based on the assumed pedestrian ability to foresee the movements of other walkers. At the same time, we introduce a new family of macroscopic models, which make…

The impacts of mass migration, such as crisis induced by climate change, extend beyond environmental concerns and can greatly affect social infrastructure and public services, such as education, healthcare, and security. These crises…

This article attempts to offer some perspectives on Bayesian inference for finite population quantities when the units in the population are assumed to exhibit complex dependencies. Beginning with an overview of Bayesian hierarchical…

Quantifying uncertainties in collective human behavior and decision making is crucial for ensuring public health and safety, enabling effective disaster response, informing the design of transportation and communication networks, and…

Bayesian methods have been very successful in quantifying uncertainty in physics-based problems in parameter estimation and prediction. In these cases, physical measurements y are modeled as the best fit of a physics-based model…

The vast majority of stochastic simulation models are imperfect in that they fail to exactly emulate real system dynamics. The inexactness of the simulation model, or model discrepancy, can impact the predictive accuracy and usefulness of…

1) Micro-evolutionary predictions are complicated by ecological feedbacks like density dependence, while ecological predictions can be complicated by evolutionary change. A widely used approach in micro-evolution, quantitative genetics,…

Indirect information on population size, like pellet counts or volunteer counts, is the main source of information in most ecological studies and applied population management situations. Often, such observations are treaded as if they were…