相关论文: Embedding Population Dynamics Models in Inference

We propose a learning-based robust predictive control algorithm that compensates for significant uncertainty in the dynamics for a class of discrete-time systems that are nominally linear with an additive nonlinear component. Such systems…

The topic of deep learning has seen a surge of interest in recent years both within and outside of the field of Statistics. Deep models leverage both nonlinearity and interaction effects to provide superior predictions in many cases when…

Kinetic equations play a major rule in modeling large systems of interacting particles. Recently the legacy of classical kinetic theory found novel applications in socio-economic and life sciences, where processes characterized by large…

Dynamical systems modeling, particularly via systems of ordinary differential equations, has been used to effectively capture the temporal behavior of different biochemical components in signal transduction networks. Despite the recent…

Better understanding the natural world is a crucial task with a wide range of applications. In environments with close proximity between humans and animals, such as zoos, it is essential to better understand the causes behind animal…

Focusing on a specific crowd dynamics situation, including real life experiments and measurements, our paper targets a twofold aim: (1) we present a Bayesian probabilistic method to estimate the value and the uncertainty (in the form of a…

Data-driven model identification strategies can be used to obtain phenomenological models that capture the temporal evolution of observable data. While it is usually straightforward to obtain such a model from time series data, for instance…

Bayesian inference methods are applied within a Bayesian hierarchical modelling framework to the problems of joint state and parameter estimation, and of state forecasting. We explore and demonstrate the ideas in the context of a simple…

We review a success story regarding Bayesian inference in fisheries management in the Baltic Sea. The management of salmon fisheries is currently based on the results of a complex Bayesian population dynamic model, and managers and…

Multi-model ensembles provide a pragmatic approach to the representation of model uncertainty in climate prediction. However, such representations are inherently ad hoc, and, as shown, probability distributions of climate variables based on…

This paper presents a robust MPC scheme for linear systems subject to time-varying, uncertain constraints that arise from uncertain environments. The predicted input sequence is parameterized over future environment states to guarantee…

Machine learning models have emerged as a very effective strategy to sidestep time-consuming electronic-structure calculations, enabling accurate simulations of greater size, time scale and complexity. Given the interpolative nature of…

The inability of artificial neural networks to assess the uncertainty of their predictions is an impediment to their widespread use. We distinguish two types of learnable uncertainty: model uncertainty due to a lack of training data and…

Earth System Models (ESMs) are the state of the art for projecting the effects of climate change. However, longstanding uncertainties in their ability to simulate regional and local precipitation extremes and related processes inhibit…

Contemporary tasks of complex system simulation are often related to the issue of uncertainty management. It comes from the lack of information or knowledge about the simulated system as well as from restrictions of the model set being…

We are living in an uncertain and dynamically changing world, where optimal decision-making under uncertainty is directly linked to the survival of species. However, evolutionary selection pressures that shape value-based decision-making…

This article shows how to specify and construct a discrete, stochastic, continuous-time model specifically for ecological systems. The model is more broad than typical chemical kinetics models in two ways. First, using time-dependent hazard…

Conservation science depends on an accurate understanding of what's happening in a given ecosystem. How many species live there? What is the makeup of the population? How is that changing over time? Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) seeks…

This article analyzes the problem of estimating the time until an event occurs, also known as survival modeling. We observe through substantial experiments on large real-world datasets and use-cases that populations are largely…

Many classical models of collective behavior assume that emergent dynamics result from external and observable interactions among individuals. However, how collective dynamics in human populations depend on the internal psychological…