相关论文: Embedding Population Dynamics Models in Inference

Existing procedures for model validation have been deemed inadequate for many engineering systems. The reason of this inadequacy is due to the high degree of complexity of the mechanisms that govern these systems. It is proposed in this…

Human dynamics and sociophysics suggest statistical models that may explain and provide us with better insight into social phenomena. Here we tackle the problem of determining the distribution of the population density of a social space…

Effective control requires knowledge of the process dynamics to guide the system toward desired states. In many control applications this knowledge is expressed mathematically or through data-driven models, however, as complexity grows…

A Bayesian approach is developed to analyze change points in multivariate time series and space-time data. The methodology is used to assess the impact of extended inundation on the ecosystem of the Gulf Plains bioregion in northern…

We discuss several models of the dynamics of interacting populations. The models are constructed by nonlinear differential equations and have two sets of parameters: growth rates and coefficients of interaction between populations. We…

1. Although environmental variability is expected to play a more prominent role under climate change, current demographic models that ignore the differential environmental histories of cohorts across generations are unlikely to accurately…

Populations exhibiting partial migration consist of two groups of individuals: Those that mi- grate between habitats, and those that remain fixed in a single habitat. We propose several discrete-time population models to investigate the…

Bayesian methods are increasingly being applied to parameterize mechanistic process models used in environmental prediction and forecasting. In particular, models describing ecosystem dynamics with multiple states that are linear and…

We consider the problem of selecting deterministic or stochastic models for a biological, ecological, or environmental dynamical process. In most cases, one prefers either deterministic or stochastic models as candidate models based on…

For many infectious disease outbreaks, the at-risk population changes their behavior in response to the outbreak severity, causing the transmission dynamics to change in real-time. Behavioral change is often ignored in epidemic modeling…

This paper is to show that most discrete models used for population dynamics in ecology are inherently pathological that their predications cannot be independently verified by experiments because they violate a fundamental principle of…

Recently, deep learning has emerged as a promising tool for statistical downscaling, the set of methods for generating high-resolution climate fields from coarse low-resolution variables. Nevertheless, their ability to generalize to climate…

An integro-differential model for evolutionary dynamics with mutations is investigated by improving the understanding of its behavior using numerical simulations. The proposed numerical approach can handle also density dependent fitness,…

While machine learning is rapidly being developed and deployed in health settings such as influenza prediction, there are critical challenges in using data from one environment in another due to variability in features; even within disease…

We describe a continuous-time modelling framework for biological population dynamics that accounts for demographic noise. In the spirit of the methodology used by statistical physicists, transitions between the states of the system are…

Temporal networks of face-to-face interactions between individuals are useful proxies of the dynamics of social systems on fast time scales. Several empirical statistical properties of these networks have been shown to be robust across a…

Predictive dynamical models for marine ecosystems are used for a variety of needs. Due to sparse measurements and limited understanding of the myriad of ocean processes, there is however significant uncertainty. There is model uncertainty…

The question of whether a population will persist or go extinct is of key interest throughout ecology and biology. Various mathematical techniques allow us to generate knowledge regarding individual behaviour, which can be analysed to…

Continuum models for the spatial dynamics of growing cell populations have been widely used to investigate the mechanisms underpinning tissue development and tumour invasion. These models consist of nonlinear partial differential equations…

Spatial patterning is common in ecological systems and has been extensively studied via different modeling approaches. Individual-based models (IBMs) accurately describe nonlinear interactions at the organism level and the stochastic…